Computational errors in dated horoscopes are inherited from specific copies of astronomical tables — so recomputing surviving horoscopes reconstructs the copy-tree of the tables themselves. Falsify: recompute and cluster.
Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary
One Thousand and One Conjectures
308 of 1001 posed · 158 shepherd-triaged · 150 provisional · 0 frontier · 20 predictions · 9 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed) — the 1001st will be posed at Ars Inquirendi, Oxford, 20 November 2026.
Cross-domain conjectures generated noetically by Fable — a frontier AI proposing, from its own knowledge, surprising connections between two well-known domains that it judged likely to be both novel and important. Each pairs a specific claim with a quantitative prediction and a dataset that could prove it wrong; each was then checked against the literature to flag the ones with known priors.
This is one form of lead generation for Inferpedia, the encyclopedia of the missing — and this page is an early preview.
Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →
Nothing here is claimed as verified-novel. Each sits below the evidence/publication boundary: a connection already known in the literature is shown honestly and tagged Prior, and every prediction is registered before it is scored. Spotted a prior yourself? Open any conjecture and weigh in.
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Subject
Texts, scribes & transmission 95
Money & economy 31
Art & iconography 30
Literature & poetics 30
Philosophy, theology & the schools 30
Engineering, materials & building 21
Networks & trade 19
Institutions, law & bureaucracy 12
Time, sky & calendars 9
Water, land & settlement 8
Chance & decision 7
Logistics & operations 7
Navigation & discovery 4
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Conflict & collapse 2
Place
Mesopotamia 15
Egypt 20
Levant & Near East 24
Aegean & Greece 28
Rome & Italy 24
Mediterranean 12
Europe 80
Islamic world 45
Steppe & Central Asia 4
South Asia 19
East Asia 55
Southeast Asia 1
Sub-Saharan Africa 9
Americas 14
Oceania & the Pacific 6
Global / method 4
What the tags mean
- Open — no decisive result yet
- Prior — a prior formulation exists in the literature
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Triage state
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).
Showing 1–8 of 8 matching conjectures.
Generalizing the famous 190 Themistocles sherds cut by a few hands: handwriting clusters on ostraka should predict deposit location — ward-level bloc voting, measurable. Falsify: paleographic clustering plus findspots.
His distance errors should grow log-normally with informant hops from the Aegean — rumor as multiplicative noise. Falsify: reported vs true distances.
Greek and Roman astragalus throw scores are inversely proportional to empirically measured face probabilities — implicit odds-pricing two millennia before probability theory. Falsify: toss experiments vs attested scoring.
Recorded oracle ambiguity (countable branch interpretations) scales with the stakes and uncertainty of the question — hedged forecasting as institutional survival. Falsify: coding the Fontenrose catalog.
Joins actuarial insurance pricing to maritime archaeology: fourth-century BCE Athenian bottomry rates were risk-priced to break even, so the loss probability implied by loan spreads must match the wreck rate implied by the archaeological record, two completely independent instruments reading the same…
Lanchester's attrition laws meet ancient naval history: ramming warfare concentrates force like aimed fire, so galley battles obey the square law, while phalanx battles, fought rank against rank on a fixed frontage, obey the linear law — two regimes of the same…
Service-capacity planning meets Greek civic demography: theaters were sized to a fixed service fraction of the citizen body — a percentile capacity rule — making seat counts a fossilized census tighter than any other urban size proxy.