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Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary

One Thousand and One Conjectures

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One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 0 provisional · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

The conjectures are a public preview of a much larger inference project, coming shortly.

Why these conjectures matter — the account, written by the model under examination → · The noetome, measured: gradient, quadrant map & the corpus judging itself → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84%

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Stratum
Philosophy, theology & the schools 115 Literature & poetics 80 Institutions, law & bureaucracy 42 African book cultures 40 Eastern Christian book cultures 40 Everyday & documentary writing 40 Music, liturgy & ritual 40 South Asian text cultures 40 Byzantine book culture 35 Central & Inner Asian texts 35 Jewish book cultures 35 Texts, scribes & transmission 35 Money & economy 31 Art & iconography 30 East Asian text cultures 30 Islamicate book cultures 30 Medicine, science & the occult 30 Southeast Asian text cultures 30 The cuneiform world 30 Women & textual production 30 Book economics & scribal labour 28 Method, bridges & the corpus itself 25 Pre-Columbian American writing 25 The oral-written interface 25 Engineering, materials & building 21 Networks & trade 19 Time, sky & calendars 9 Water, land & settlement 8 Chance & decision 7 Logistics & operations 7 Navigation & discovery 4 Sound & performance 3 Community-posed 2 Conflict & collapse 2
Subject
Medieval Latin institutions and prosopography 169 Material practice and ritual action 111 Islamic and Persianate source transmission 97 South and Southeast Asian inscriptional polities 93 Greek textual transmission 83 African manuscript and source ecologies 79 Early Christian and Syriac transmission 75 East Asian manuscript and canonical transmission 73 Technical, recipe, and scientific texts 57 Jewish textual transmission 51 Egyptian papyrological and epigraphic worlds 48 Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and succession 47 Steppe and Central Asian nomadic and Silk Road sources 42 Americas pre-Columbian and contact-era records 41 Judaism 40 Roman documentary and epigraphic culture 33 Syriac Christianity 33 Theology as a science (sacred doctrine) 24 Mediterranean maritime and connectivity sources 19 Medieval Jewish history 11 Hebrew Bible 8 Lost literary works 8 Dulia (veneration of the saints) 6 Mesopotamian administrative and accounting practice 6 Oceanic and Pacific oral-dominant source worlds 6
Lens
Manuscript and scribal production 347 Channel dissociation 75 Epigraphy and damaged inscriptions 49 Market equilibrium, price, and arbitrage 34 Stemmatics: reconstructing transmission trees from shared error 26 Survival analysis: hazard rates and half-lives 26 The comparative method and natural experiments 24 Information theory: redundancy, error-correction, and compression 22 Rank-size laws and heavy tails 22 Statistical physics: transport, percolation, criticality, and tipping points 19 Capture-recapture and unseen-species estimation 18 Diffusion of innovations and contagion 18 Costly signaling and verification 17 Network topology and centrality 17 Taphonomy and survivorship bias 17 Dialect geography: isoglosses, distance-decay, and seriation 16 Operations research: queueing, inventory, and logistics optimization 14 The molecular clock: constant-rate change as a dating instrument 10 The experience curve: learning by cumulative production 3
Kill dataset
Union catalogues 169 Critical apparatus 97 Egyptian papyri & ostraca 85 Published editions 77 Dated colophons 63 Dunhuang & Turfan hoards 59 Archaeological survey 50 Digitized texts 50 Scholastic citations 50 Chant & liturgy 49 Charters & chanceries 49 Epigraphy 49 Cuneiform archives (CDLI) 46 Witness counts (Pinakes) 46 East Asian canons 34 Byzantine book epigrams (DBBE) 33 Prices & wages 33 Astronomical tables 32 Cairo Geniza 32 Mesoamerican codices 32 Islamic manuscript culture 25 Archaeometry 22 Byzantine lead seals 17 Art & iconography 16 Not yet built 15 Fragments & bindings 12 Christian Nubia 11 Numismatics 10 Letter collections 9 Khipus 8 Hadith isnads 6 Romano-British tablets 6 Novgorod birch bark 5 The corpus itself 5 D-PLACE / Seshat 3

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
Fable 5 1003 RMD 1
Altitude
Record claim 761 World claim 222 Instrument claim 20
Place
Mesopotamia 15 Egypt 20 Levant & Near East 24 Aegean & Greece 28 Rome & Italy 24 Mediterranean 12 Europe 80 Islamic world 45 Steppe & Central Asia 4 South Asia 19 East Asia 55 Southeast Asia 1 Sub-Saharan Africa 9 Americas 14 Oceania & the Pacific 6 Global / method 4
Era
Bronze Age 24 Iron Age & Antiquity 45 Medieval 180 Early Modern 14 Cross-period 45
Status
Open 5 Anticipated · untested 844 No prior located 50 Already answered 95 Supported 4 Falsified 5
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–6 of 6 matching conjectures.

An abecedarium molecular clock Anticipated · untested testable

An abecedarium — a written-out sequence of an alphabet in its canonical order — is copied and taught from teacher to pupil down the generations, and each retransmission risks small changes to the order: a transposition, an inserted letter, a dropped one.…

Texts, scribes & transmission Cross-period Mediterranean Mediterranean maritime and connectivity sources Epigraphy and damaged inscriptionsManuscript and scribal productionThe molecular clock: constant-rate change as a dating instrument Digitized textsNot yet built
Formulas as error correction Anticipated · untested

Information theory meets Homer: the stock formulas of oral epic — the swift-footed heroes and wine-dark seas — are here interpreted as redundancy bits, the padding a noisy channel needs to protect its payload. In transmission over fallible human memory, the hard-to-recover…

Texts, scribes & transmission Cross-period Aegean & GreeceEurope Greek textual transmission Information theory: redundancy, error-correction, and compression Critical apparatus
Vedic vs vellum Anticipated · untested

Two transmission technologies for Sanskrit ran side by side for centuries: the mnemonic machinery of Vedic recitation — interlocking recitation modes and error-checking permutations built to preserve the Rigveda syllable-perfect — and ordinary manuscript copying, which carried texts like the Mahābhārata. Philologists…

Texts, scribes & transmission Cross-period South Asia South and Southeast Asian inscriptional polities Information theory: redundancy, error-correction, and compressionManuscript and scribal production Critical apparatus
Censored skies Anticipated · untested

Chinese court astronomers recorded celestial omens for two millennia, but they worked for a state in which comets and eclipses bore directly on the Mandate of Heaven — so the record was politically sensitive by construction. Korean, Japanese, and Arabic astronomers watched…

Texts, scribes & transmission Cross-period East AsiaIslamic world East Asian manuscript and canonical transmissionIslamic and Persianate source transmissionTechnical, recipe, and scientific texts The comparative method and natural experiments Astronomical tables
Rongorongo as genealogy engine Anticipated · untested

Rongorongo, the undeciphered glyph system of Easter Island, does not have to be read to be classified: its sequence statistics can be compared against the signatures of known genres. Recitation genealogies and chants — well attested in Polynesian tradition — have a…

Texts, scribes & transmission Cross-period Oceania & the Pacific Oceanic and Pacific oral-dominant source worlds Epigraphy and damaged inscriptions Digitized textsNot yet built
The singleton census Anticipated · untested

Joins capture-recapture ecology to Greek philology: ecologists estimate how many species they have never seen from the ratio of species observed exactly once to species observed exactly twice, and the same arithmetic applies to books. Each surviving witness to a Greek work…

Texts, scribes & transmission Cross-period Aegean & Greece Greek textual transmission Capture-recapture and unseen-species estimationManuscript and scribal production Witness counts (Pinakes)