Comparing Chinese, Korean, Japanese, and Arabic records of the same celestial events yields a censorship index: Chinese omissions should cluster in usurpation and legitimacy-crisis decades. Falsify: comparative event catalogs.
Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary
One Thousand and One Conjectures
308 of 1001 posed · 158 shepherd-triaged · 150 provisional · 0 frontier · 20 predictions · 9 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed) — the 1001st will be posed at Ars Inquirendi, Oxford, 20 November 2026.
Cross-domain conjectures generated noetically by Fable — a frontier AI proposing, from its own knowledge, surprising connections between two well-known domains that it judged likely to be both novel and important. Each pairs a specific claim with a quantitative prediction and a dataset that could prove it wrong; each was then checked against the literature to flag the ones with known priors.
This is one form of lead generation for Inferpedia, the encyclopedia of the missing — and this page is an early preview.
Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →
Nothing here is claimed as verified-novel. Each sits below the evidence/publication boundary: a connection already known in the literature is shown honestly and tagged Prior, and every prediction is registered before it is scored. Spotted a prior yourself? Open any conjecture and weigh in.
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Subject
Texts, scribes & transmission 95
Money & economy 31
Art & iconography 30
Literature & poetics 30
Philosophy, theology & the schools 30
Engineering, materials & building 21
Networks & trade 19
Institutions, law & bureaucracy 12
Time, sky & calendars 9
Water, land & settlement 8
Chance & decision 7
Logistics & operations 7
Navigation & discovery 4
Sound & performance 3
Conflict & collapse 2
Place
Mesopotamia 15
Egypt 20
Levant & Near East 24
Aegean & Greece 28
Rome & Italy 24
Mediterranean 12
Europe 80
Islamic world 45
Steppe & Central Asia 4
South Asia 19
East Asia 55
Southeast Asia 1
Sub-Saharan Africa 9
Americas 14
Oceania & the Pacific 6
Global / method 4
What the tags mean
- Open — no decisive result yet
- Prior — a prior formulation exists in the literature
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Triage state
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).
Showing 1–7 of 7 matching conjectures.
Oracle-bone crack outcomes are statistically random, but question sequencing shows diviners applying gambler's-fallacy corrections — a court managing its own random number generator. Falsify: streak statistics in the Anyang corpus.
Early received hexagram records should match the asymmetric yarrow-stalk probabilities and later ones the symmetric coin method — a statistical date for the method change. Falsify: frequency analysis of Zuozhuan vs later corpora.
Trace-element signatures in blue stained glass should shift with documented disruptions of Asian trade routes — windows as sensors of Eurasian politics. Falsify: dated glass panels vs route-history chronology.
Joins public-finance bunching estimators (the kink analysis used on modern tax records) to the Chinese examination system: regional pass quotas, not the geography of talent, shaped the spatial distribution of the empire's elite, and quotas leave the same tell-tale excess mass at…
Joins the economics of luxury counterfeiting to Japanese sword connoisseurship: forged signatures (gimei) on blades are counterfeit branding, so the forgery rate should rise steeply with the smith's brand equity, exactly as fake rates concentrate in the top handbag brands today.
Newsvendor inventory theory meets the Chinese ever-normal granary: the changpingcang's buy-low/sell-high trigger prices implement a newsvendor critical fractile, so the width of the price band reveals the state's implied ratio of shortage cost to storage cost — a solved optimization a millennium…