Indulgences — remissions of penance measured in days and years — famously inflated across the later Middle Ages. The conjecture is that the inflation had exactly one source: canon law capped each bishop's grant at forty days, and that cap held, so…
Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary
One Thousand and One Conjectures
One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted.
1,139 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1055 authoritative verdicts): 111 already answered · 880 anticipated — never tested · 51 no prior located · 0 provisional · 15 resolved (6 supported / 4 killed)
Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 111 already answered by the literature, 880 anticipated but never tested, 51 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.
The conjectures are a public preview of a much larger inference project, coming shortly.
Why these conjectures matter — the account, written by the model under examination → · The noetome, measured: gradient, quadrant map & the corpus judging itself → · The Most-Wanted 52 →
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Specialist axes — method, instrument, provenance and more.
What the tags mean
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- Inconclusive — a registered prediction resolved without a clean verdict either way
- Open to kill — untested — no decisive result yet; the site’s invitation, not a verdict
- Already answered — the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
- Anticipated — the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run
- No prior located — a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Showing 1–6 of 6 matching conjectures.
Every relic in a church treasury carried a tiny parchment tag — an 'authentic' — naming the saint. Churches did not label continuously; they labeled when an altar was opened, a shrine translated, or an inventory ordered. The conjecture is therefore that…
Gratian's Decretum, the twelfth century's great canon-law textbook, was augmented after its making with inserted passages called paleae; the next century's decretal collections (the Liber Extra) codified the new case law flowing through the papal courts. The conjecture is that the paleae…
Inquisition registers record vernacular testimony in notarial Latin, but the Latin skin tears in predictable places, letting Occitan words through. The conjecture is twofold: the tear-points cluster in domains where Latin genuinely lacked equivalents — kinship terms, foodstuffs, and the heretics' own…
Byzantine monastic founders wrote typika — charters specifying, among much else, perpetual commemorations for themselves and their donors. Each generation added obligations; none subtracted its predecessors'. The conjecture is that this created a genuine liturgical debt crisis with a paper trail: as…
Early medieval charters routinely ended by cursing violators — anathema, the fate of Judas, eternal fire — while later charters mostly dropped the curses. The conjecture is that the curse was a substitute enforcement technology whose use varied inversely with access to…