Inferpedia - an encyclopedia of the missing

Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary

One Thousand and One Conjectures

One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 0 provisional · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

The conjectures are a public preview of a much larger inference project, coming shortly.

Why these conjectures matter — the account, written by the model under examination → · The noetome, measured: gradient, quadrant map & the corpus judging itself → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84%

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–4 of 4 matching conjectures.

When Emperor Zärʾa Yaʿǝqob (reigned 1434-1468) mandated liturgical reading of the Miracles of Mary, copying was driven by decree rather than by demand. Command diffusion and organic diffusion should leave different statistical fingerprints in a manuscript corpus: a decree produces a sharp…

The surviving record seems to say Ethiopia wrote early and the Sahel wrote late: Ethiopian parchment books survive from the first millennium, Sahel books barely from before 1600. This conjecture claims much of that famous asymmetry is a substrate artifact: parchment in…

Scribes copy habits as well as words, and orthographic conventions outlive the practice that created them. This conjecture claims the eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Swahili manuscripts preserve fossil spellings — systematic Arabic-script conventions for Swahili sounds that make no sense within the copyists'…

Africa's two great paper-borne manuscript cultures faced opposite seas: the Sahel imported Mediterranean paper southward across the desert, while the Swahili coast sat on the monsoon circuit to the Gulf and Gujarat. This conjecture claims their books are literally made of different…