AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

Gresham's phase transition

Status: Prior

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Gresham's phase transition. Debasement is tolerated until a critical fineness, then old-coin hoarding jumps discontinuously — and the threshold should be roughly the same in 3rd-century Rome and 14th-century France. Falsify: old/new coin ratios in hoards vs fineness series.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

old/new coin ratios in hoards vs fineness series.

Provenance

Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5

Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."

Novelty / leakage triage

Adjacent (closely related prior work exists)

Debasement-driven hoarding of older finer coin is standard Gresham's-law historiography, and Rolnick/Velde/Weber analyze concurrent old/new circulation in medieval French/English debasements quantitatively. The specific claim — a DISCONTINUOUS hoarding onset at a critical fineness, with roughly the same threshold in 3rd-century Rome and 14th-century France, testable in hoard old/new ratios — was not located.

Rolnick, Velde & Weber, 'The Debasement Puzzle: An Essay on Medieval Monetary History', Journal of Economic History — Quantitative old/new coin circulation under debasement

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