AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

Wear-rate velocity

Status: Prior

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Wear-rate velocity. Coin wear per year (calibrated on dated issues) measures circulation velocity; predict velocity spikes in crises as hoards dishoard. Falsify: 3D wear metrology on stratified site finds.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

3D wear metrology on stratified site finds.

Provenance

Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5

Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."

Novelty / leakage triage

Leaked (already exists in the literature)

The core join — coin wear as an estimator of circulation velocity — is published: a compound-Poisson wear model explicitly frames weight loss as a way to estimate velocity of circulation, and numismatic wear-based lifetime-in-circulation estimates are established practice. The crisis-dishoarding velocity-spike prediction was not located as tested, but the connection is not new.

'Coin wear: A power law for small shocks', Physica A — Compound-Poisson wear model as velocity-of-circulation estimator (snippet-cited; full text 403)
American Numismatic Society, 'The Lifetime in Circulation of Visigothic Coins' — Wear as circulation-duration estimator in numismatic practice

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