AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Obsidian regime shifts
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Obsidian regime shifts. The distance-decay exponent of obsidian steps down sharply when seafaring arrives — transport revolutions visible as breaks in one constant. Falsify: sourced Melos and Anatolian distributions through time.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
sourced Melos and Anatolian distributions through time.
Provenance
Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5
Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."
Novelty / leakage triage
Adjacent (closely related prior work exists)
Obsidian distance-decay is a mature methodology (Renfrew's fall-off curves and refinements; agent-based exchange modeling), and Melian network data is actively studied; the specific diachronic break-detection — the decay exponent stepping down at the onset of seafaring — was not located as tested.
- Renfrew fall-off-curve framework (overview) — The established decay methodology
- 'Viewing Melian Neolithic Obsidian Networks from the Western Side of the Aegean Sea' — Current Melos distribution data
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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