AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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The Champagne schedule
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The Champagne schedule. The fair calendar is a solved traveling-merchant problem: dates minimize total circuit dead-time, and its wartime breakdown measurably rerouted trade to sea. Falsify: calendar optimization plus toll series.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
calendar optimization plus toll series.
Provenance
Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5
Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."
Novelty / leakage triage
Adjacent (closely related prior work exists)
The fair cycle's calendar logic is documented (six staggered fairs avoiding winter and harvest) and the wartime rerouting to the Genoese/Venetian sea link is established decline historiography — which covers the conjecture's second half historically. The formal claim that the CALENDAR solves a traveling-merchant dead-time minimization was not located; note the documented seasonal constraints partially confound that optimization reading (the schedule's known rationale is agricultural/climatic, so any optimization test must control for it).
- Edwards & Ogilvie, 'What lessons for economic development can we draw from the Champagne fairs?' — Institutional analysis of the fair cycle
Predictions
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