AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Wright's law in clay
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Wright's law in clay. Dimensional standardization (CV of amphorae and lamps) falls as a power law of cumulative regional output — the learning curve, two millennia early. Falsify: typology metrics vs production estimates.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
typology metrics vs production estimates.
Provenance
Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5
Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."
Novelty / leakage triage
Leaked (already exists in the literature)
The connection between production intensity/scale and dimensional standardization (measured by coefficient of variation) is an established research program in archaeological ceramics — the standardization hypothesis literature states substantially this join, including for amphorae and with explicit production-scale studies. The Wright's-law functional form (CV as a power law of CUMULATIVE output) is the only unlocated refinement.
- Roux, 'Ceramic Standardization and Intensity of Production', American Antiquity — The standardization-production join
- Eerkens & Bettinger, 'Techniques for Assessing Standardization in Artifact Assemblages', American Antiquity — CV methodology
Its literature citations feed the frontier as source leads (2 leads below the evidence/publication boundary, not yet reviewed).
Predictions
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