AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Portolan crowd wisdom
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Portolan crowd wisdom. Chart accuracy per route scales as 1/√(voyage traffic) — maps as averaged compass logs. Falsify: cartometric route error vs traffic proxies.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
cartometric route error vs traffic proxies.
Provenance
Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5
Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."
Novelty / leakage triage
Leaked (already exists in the literature)
The core join is a named, actively disputed hypothesis in the cartometric literature — the 'averaging hypothesis' that portolan accuracy derives from compiled compass-and-distance observations of many voyages — and notable evidence runs AGAINST it (accuracy did not detectably improve from the earliest dated charts onward; Nicolai argues accuracy exceeds what averaging could produce). The harvest's 1/sqrt(traffic) scaling law per route was not located as tested, but the connection is established and contested rather than new.
- Nicolai, 'Medieval Portolan Charts, a Geodetic and Historical Mystery' (FIG 2021) — Against-averaging geodetic argument
- 'Copying-lineages of portolan chart metrics', International Journal of Cartography (2024) — No accuracy improvement 1311 onward — evidence bearing on the averaging model
Predictions
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