Supported
registered 2026-07-05
variant: normalized-places-v2
calibration prediction (parent triage: leaked/adjacent)
Resolution: Supported
Caveats: Calibration verdict on the adjacent-variant dataset; still says nothing about Mesopotamian city sizes. THE SENSITIVITY HEADLINE: the Zipf-like rank-size structure is robust to the instrument - slope moves only -1.008 -> -1.056 when the known false-splits are fixed, and the strict-vs-binding gap (-1.053 vs -1.056) shows the residual-tier semantics change is nearly irrelevant; across raw strings, v1, and v2 the conclusion is stable, so the pattern is a property of the surviving record, not of the mapping. Remaining honesty: R^2 dipped 0.973 -> 0.953 (still above the bar); nome-level keys retained by design (arsinoites, grown to 5,515 by comma-twin folds, is a district not a settlement - a settlement-only re-test would be a further semantics change, not done here); flagged-not-fixed v2 imperfections remain (Dios Polis and Ptolemais bare-key homonyms, Aphrodito/Aphroditopolis fold, hermoupolis spelling splits - none in the binding top 10); excavation/publication bias untouched by any normalization; population drifted 79,215 -> 77,606 across the three tests via sanctioned concurrent scriptome work, recorded per-run.
Under mapping v2 (comma-split + Arsinoe consolidation with homonym guards + oder/alternate fixes + region-residual tier, built blind to counts; docs/generated/conjecture_extracts/papyri_place_mapping_v2_20260704.json, commit cfa5a69), the papyri.info top-50 settlement-level rank-size relation remains approximately Zipfian - the mapping-sensitivity test the v1 resolution's caveats left open. Criteria fixed verbatim in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_MAPPING_V2_20260704.md (commit e9e0338), BEFORE the v2 mapping was built.
Resolution criteria: Exclude 'unknown', 'ambiguous:' and 'residual:' keys; OLS of log10(count) on log10(rank) over ranks 1-50 of canonical keys: SUPPORTED if slope in [-1.4, -0.8] AND R^2 >= 0.90; KILLED if slope outside [-2.0, -0.5] OR R^2 < 0.80; else INCONCLUSIVE. Narrative (non-binding, must be reported): slope shift vs v1 (-1.0077); the strict-comparison number computed WITHOUT the residual: exclusion; arsinoe's consolidated rank and count; how many top-50 entries changed identity v1->v2.
Known priors disclosure: Seen at registration: the v1 result (slope -1.0077, R^2 0.9734) and v1's top-10 (oxyrhynchos 7,660; thebes 7,141; arsinoites 5,128; egypt 4,084; karanis 2,267; hermopolis 1,842; tebtynis 1,817; hermopolites 1,495; abu_mena 1,487; philadelphia 1,463); the v2 artifact's STRING-level stats only (978 keys, 324 changed strings, 48 strings folding to 'arsinoe', Peri Thebas split from 'thebes', 118 residual strings, 32 reviewed residual-token extensions). Direction genuinely unclear in aggregate: Arsinoe consolidation creates a large new key while the residual tier deletes v1's rank-4 'egypt' bucket and the Peri-Thebas split shrinks 'thebes'. NO v2 count, rank, or rank-size number has been seen. Population note: live papyri row counts have drifted twice today via concurrent sanctioned scriptome work; the computation will record the population it runs on.
OLS of log10(count) on log10(rank) over ranks 1-50, exactly as pre-registered in GOAL_CONJECTURES_MAPPING_V2_20260704.md (criteria committed e9e0338, before the v2 mapping was built; prediction registered before computation). Strict-comparison series (residual: keys included) computed as the mandated non-binding narrative. Script preserved at docs/generated/conjecture_extracts/v2_normalized_ranksize_20260705_script.py.
Dataset: papyri.info greco_roman_papyri records (77,606 with origin_place at computation time) joined to the committed blind-to-counts v2 mapping (papyri_place_mapping_v2_20260704.json, commit cfa5a69); 0 unmapped strings; binding series excludes unknown/ambiguous:/residual: (12,634 + 5,226 records); 978 canonical keys, top-50 used.
computed 2026-07-05
Supported
registered 2026-07-04
variant: normalized-places-v1
calibration prediction (parent triage: leaked/adjacent)
Resolution: Supported
Caveats: Calibration verdict on the adjacent-variant dataset; still says nothing about Mesopotamian city sizes. The headline nuance is POSITIVE for the pattern: healing string fragmentation moved the slope from -0.898 to -1.008, essentially the canonical Zipf exponent, and consolidated Oxyrhynchos to rank 1 - the raw-string result was flattened by count-splitting, not inflated by it. Remaining distortions: the rank-4 'egypt' bucket (4,084 records) is a country-level residual, not a settlement (strings carrying no finer toponym), which the pre-registered criteria did not exclude; a handful of imperfect 'oder'-alternate folds exist in the key list (none in the top 10); the population changed 79,215 -> 77,606 mid-day via the sanctioned Wave-4a retag, so this measures normalization + population cleanup jointly; excavation/publication bias is untouched by normalization. Mapping-rule sensitivity untested (one mapping, one run - by design, to keep the pre-registration clean).
Under structure-based place normalization (the F1-A mapping, built blind to counts, docs/generated/conjecture_extracts/papyri_place_mapping_20260704.json), the papyri.info top-50 canonical-place rank-size relation remains approximately Zipfian - testing whether the raw-string result was an artifact of string fragmentation. Criteria fixed verbatim in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_FOLLOWONS_20260704.md (committed 0122a3d) BEFORE the mapping existed.
Resolution criteria: Exclude 'unknown' and 'ambiguous:' keys; OLS of log10(count) on log10(rank) over ranks 1-50 of canonical places: SUPPORTED if slope in [-1.4, -0.8] AND R^2 >= 0.90; KILLED if slope outside [-2.0, -0.5] OR R^2 < 0.80; else INCONCLUSIVE. Also report (narrative, non-binding): the slope shift vs the raw-string resolution (-0.8983), and Oxyrhynchos's consolidated rank.
Known priors disclosure: The registrant has seen the raw-string result (slope -0.8983, R^2 0.9748) and the rank-2/rank-5 Oxyrhynchos split; consolidation plausibly steepens the top of the curve - direction anticipated, magnitude unknown. Also known at registration: the mapping's coverage stats only (2,864 strings -> 1,062 canonical keys, 11.28% ambiguous, 1.12% unknown - counts of STRINGS, not records); a handful of imperfect 'oder'-alternate folds spotted in the key list (e.g. 'oxyrhynchos_oder'); and that the underlying population changed 79,215 -> 77,610 records mid-day via the concurrent Wave-4a retag of mis-traditioned European codex records, so this test is normalization + population-cleanup vs the raw run, not normalization alone. NO canonical-place record count or rank has been seen.
OLS of log10(count) on log10(rank) over ranks 1-50 of canonical-place record counts, exactly as pre-registered in GOAL_CONJECTURES_FOLLOWONS_20260704.md (criteria committed 0122a3d, before the mapping existed). Script preserved at docs/generated/conjecture_extracts/f1_normalized_ranksize_20260704_script.py.
Dataset: papyri.info greco_roman_papyri records (77,606 with origin_place, after the concurrent Wave-4a mis-tradition retag) joined to the committed blind-to-counts place mapping (papyri_place_mapping_20260704.json); 0 unmapped strings; 12,608 records (16.2%) excluded as unknown/ambiguous per pre-registration; 1,062 canonical places kept, top-50 used.
computed 2026-07-04
Supported
registered 2026-07-04
calibration prediction (parent triage: leaked/adjacent)
Resolution: Supported
Caveats: Calibration verdict on an adjacent-variant dataset — this says NOTHING about Mesopotamian city sizes; it shows the Zipf-like rank-size pattern appears in the surviving Egyptian documentary record's place-count distribution. The slope sits near the registered band's shallow edge (-0.8983 vs the -0.8 boundary). origin_place is unnormalized free text and demonstrably splits real places across strings (Oxyrhynchos appears at BOTH rank 2 and rank 5 under different formattings), which flattens or distorts the measured slope by an unquantified amount; a normalized gazetteer join would be the serious follow-up. Record counts proxy excavation intensity, preservation (Fayum/Oxyrhynchus bias), and publication practice at least as much as ancient documentary output. CDLI lane ABSTAINED by pre-registration (ID-ordered non-random 14.2% batch, unfit).
ADJACENT-VARIANT calibration test, clearly distinguished from the harvest claim (which concerns Mesopotamian tablet archives): in the in-house papyri.info dataset (79,215 documentary records from Egypt), record counts per mapped origin place follow an approximately Zipfian rank-size relation over the top ranks. This tests whether the rank-size PATTERN appears in a documentary-survival record at all; it says nothing about Mesopotamia or ancient city sizes.
Resolution criteria: Exclude unmapped/'unbekannt'/unknown buckets. OLS regression of log10(count) on log10(rank) over ranks 1-50. SUPPORTED if slope is in [-1.4, -0.8] AND R^2 >= 0.90. KILLED if slope falls outside [-2.0, -0.5] OR R^2 < 0.80. Otherwise INCONCLUSIVE. The CDLI lane is ABSTAINED by pre-registration: the in-house batch is ID-ordered and non-random (14.2% of 421,501), unfit for population rank-size inference per the Phase-A extractor caveat.
Known priors disclosure: The registrant has seen the Phase-A summary only (79,215 records, 99.99% carrying an origin_place string, largest bucket 'unbekannt' at ~13.4%) and has NOT seen the place-count distribution or any rank-size plot. Standing caveat acknowledged at registration: record counts per place proxy excavation intensity, preservation (Fayum bias), and publication practice at least as much as ancient documentary output.
OLS of log10(count) on log10(rank) over ranks 1-50 after exclusions, exactly as pre-registered.
Dataset: In-house papyri.info (Wave 3a) documentary-record counts per raw origin_place string, greco_roman_papyri tradition (79,215 records, 2,974 distinct place strings), full count list pulled read-only at computation time; 42 unknown-type buckets excluded ('unbekannt'/'unknown'/'sine loco'/'?'), top-50 ranks used, exactly as pre-registered. ADJACENT-VARIANT test (Egyptian documentary record), not the harvest's Mesopotamian tablet claim.
computed 2026-07-04