AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

Dice bias lineages

Status: Prior

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Dice bias lineages. Roman die asymmetry clusters by workshop tradition, not period — craft transmission of unfairness. Falsify: 3D-scan corpora.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

3D-scan corpora.

Provenance

Run: Imported conversation (verbatim harvest) · model: claude-fable-5

Origin: operator conversation with Claude Fable 5 at max effort, conducted 2026-07-03, relayed verbatim by the operator into the shepherd session on 2026-07-04. No ModelRun exists for the original generation (it happened outside the pipeline); this transcript file is the canonical capture. Transcript path: docs/generated/conjecture_harvest_fablemax_20260703.md. Model (operator-attested, not pipeline-recorded): claude-fable-5. Novelty disclaimer (verbatim, load-bearing -- rule 4): "Same caveat as before, doubled: at 100 items across all of archaeology and history, some of these will have cousins in the literature I can't check. What I can guarantee is the format — each links two things not normally linked, and each names the dataset or measurement that would kill it."

Novelty / leakage triage

Adjacent (closely related prior work exists)

The exact object is directly studied: Eerkens & de Voogt (2022) quantitatively analyze a dated Roman dice corpus, find asymmetry varies CONTINUOUSLY (arguing production bias via replication experiments), and review — without adopting — a cultural-transmission account linking elongated forms to Iron Age/Etruscan traditions. The conjecture's specific clustering test (workshop-tradition clusters, not period) remains unrun, and the published continuous-variation finding leans against clean clustering — a resolution must engage that.

Eerkens & de Voogt 2022, 'Why are Roman-period dice asymmetrical?', AAS — Full-text-confirmed; continuous variation + production-bias account, transmission account reviewed

Predictions

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