Monopoly shows in the script

Claim (verbatim)

Monopoly shows in the script: the Mithila school's teaching monopoly in early Navya-Nyaya was a copying monopoly too, and it left a permanent physical signature. Works of the monopoly period should circulate almost exclusively in eastern scripts, while pre-monopoly Nyaya classics show pan-Indian script spread — institutional control of instruction restricts which script communities ever copy a text, and the restriction outlives the monopoly because later diffusion copies the curriculum, not the corpus. School politics of the fourteenth century should be readable today as a script histogram.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

In the New Catalogus Catalogorum records and the NGMCP online catalogue, tabulate witnesses by script. Primary clause: at least 70 percent of catalogued witnesses of Gangesa's Tattvacintamani are in eastern scripts (Maithili, Bengali, and kin), whereas under 40 percent of witnesses of the Nyayasutra with Vatsyayana's Bhasya are eastern; the verdict follows this clause. Secondary clause: the eastern share for Raghunatha Siromani's Didhiti remains at least 60 percent, showing diffusion followed the school line even after the monopoly broke.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the New Catalogus Catalogorum (University of Madras, published volumes recording per-witness script) and the Nepal-German Manuscript Cataloguing Project online catalogue.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

The premise -- that early Navya-Nyaya in Mithila combined a teaching monopoly with a copying restriction (the tradition-story that Mithila pandits would not let Gangesa's Tattvacintamani be copied out of the region, forcing memorization) -- is documented in the standard history, and the eastern (Maithili/Bengali) centre of gravity of the school, plus the later contraction of Bengal-authored nyaya circulation, are recognized. Not located: the specific script-histogram test the item stakes (>=70% eastern-script witnesses for the Tattvacintamani vs <40% for the old Nyayasutra/Bhasya; >=60% eastern for the Didhiti) against the New Catalogus Catalogorum / NGMCP per-witness script data.

• Dineshchandra Bhattacharya, History of Navya-Nyaya in Mithila (Mithila Institute, 1958) — The Mithila teaching centre and its copying/transmission restrictions
• 'The arrival of Navya-Nyaya techniques in Varanasi' (on the eastern spread of the Tattvacintamani commentarial tradition) — School-line diffusion of Navya-Nyaya out of Mithila/Navadvipa

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.