AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Sugi votes Khitan
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Sugi votes Khitan. The celebrated accuracy of the second Tripitaka Koreana conceals a geopolitics of textual lineage. Sugi's collation bureau worked from three witnesses — the Song Kai-bao line, the Khitan (Liao) canon, and the first Koryo carving — and recorded its adjudications in the Kyojong pyollok. Read those notes as a voting record rather than as anecdotes and the conjecture is that the Koreana's famed correctness is substantially a systematic, lopsided preference for the Khitan textual line, whose northern manuscript tradition was independent of the hasty Kai-bao editing — accuracy purchased by picking a better parent, not by neutral case-by-case judgment.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Enumerate every entry in the Koryoguk sinjo taejang kyojong pyollok (K 1402) where Sugi states a disagreement between the Khitan canon and the Kai-bao or first-Koryo line and records a decision. Primary clause (verdict follows it): in at least 65 percent of such entries the adopted reading is the Khitan one. Secondary: the entries that reject a Khitan reading disproportionately concern omissions of whole passages rather than graph-level substitutions.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: CBETA, which carries Sugi's Kyojong pyollok as K 1402 in the Koryo supplement, fully searchable; the adjudication entries are self-contained and countable. Resolvable against CBETA without new ingestion.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.
Novelty / leakage triage
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Leaked (already exists in the literature).
The item's surprising connection -- that the second Koryo canon's famed accuracy rests on a systematic preference for the Khitan (Liao) textual line over the hastily-edited Kai-bao line -- is already the published reading. Buswell's study of Sugi's collation notes states outright that, while the second Koryo canon imitated the Kai-bao and first-Koryo canons in style and format, 'its readings followed more closely those found in the Khitan Liao canon.' The verdict follows the item's primary clause (Khitan reading adopted in >=65% of adjudications), and that clause restates the documented lopsided preference. Genuinely fresh, and unrun, is only the exact voting-record proportion and the omission-versus-substitution secondary pattern -- neither carries the verdict.
- Robert E. Buswell Jr., 'Sugi's Collation Notes to the Koryo Buddhist Canon and Their Significance for Buddhist Textual Criticism', Journal of Korean Studies 9 (2004) — States the second Koryo canon's readings 'followed more closely those found in the Khitan Liao canon' -- the item's connection, published
- CBETA: Sugi's Koryoguk sinjo taejang kyojong pyollok (K 1402) in the Koryo supplement, fully searchable — The named kill dataset for the (unrun) entry-by-entry Khitan-adoption proportion
Predictions
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