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AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

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Blocks copy shapes, brushes copy sounds

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Blocks copy shapes, brushes copy sounds. The manuscript-to-woodblock interface should flip the error spectrum of a scripture. A copyist holds the text in his ear for the span of a phrase (self-dictation), so his slips are homophones; a block carver — often semi-lettered, cutting mirror-reversed graphs from a sheet pasted face-down — holds only strokes, so his slips are lookalikes. Where both witness classes survive in bulk for one text, the production mode should be recoverable from the variant typology alone, a decidable signature of hand versus knife.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Collate a large sample of Dunhuang manuscript copies of the Diamond Sutra and early printed witnesses (from the dated 868 scroll onward, plus early canon prints) against the CBETA base text of T 235; classify singleton variants as homophonic substitution, graphic-confusion substitution, or other. Primary clause (verdict follows it): the ratio homophonic-to-graphic among manuscript-witness singleton errors is at least twice the same ratio among print-witness singleton errors. Secondary: eyeskip omissions triggered by repeated graphs occur at similar rates in both classes, isolating substitution type as the discriminator.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: IDP's several hundred catalogued Dunhuang Diamond Sutra copies, including the dated 868 printed scroll (Or.8210/P.2), collated against the CBETA/SAT text of T 235. Resolvable against IDP plus CBETA.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

The variant taxonomy the item rests on is established in Dunhuang philology: singleton errors sort into phonetic/homophonic substitutions (tongjiazi) and graphic-confusion substitutions (yitizi), studied systematically (Anderl and colleagues' variation seminars; 'Scribal Errors and Layout Genetics in Dunhuang Buddhist Manuscripts'), with self-dictation cited as the source of homophone slips. Not located: the item's specific PRODUCTION-MODE discriminator -- the homophonic-to-graphic ratio among manuscript-witness singleton errors running at least twice that among print/carver-witness singleton errors, tested by collating IDP Diamond Sutra copies (incl. the 868 printed scroll) against CBETA T 235, with eyeskip omissions held as a control. The two error types are a recognized taxonomy; the manuscript-versus-print ratio contrast (the carver-graphic side is barely studied) is an unrun operationalization.

Predictions

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