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AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

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Format converts before script

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Format converts before script. The Tibetan-period Dunhuang corpus should show a double dissociation between two channels of borrowing. Liturgy imports FORMAT: Chinese-language Buddhist texts appear on Tibetan-style pothi leaves because the leaf format itself carried ritual prestige and suited recitation. Administration and schooling import SCRIPT: Chinese-language texts written phonetically in Tibetan letters served people who spoke Chinese but were schooled, under the occupation and after it, in Tibetan writing. Sacred form travels with the liturgy; graphic code travels with the chancery — and the two borrowings should sort onto nearly disjoint text populations.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Classify Dunhuang items into (a) pothi-format leaves carrying Chinese-language text and (b) Tibetan-script phonetic transcriptions of Chinese. Primary clause (verdict follows it): at least 80 percent of class (a) is Buddhist liturgical or scriptural, AND the secular-or-pedagogic share of class (b) exceeds the secular share of class (a) by at least 30 percentage points — the conjunction must hold. Secondary: class (b) concentrates after 848, the post-occupation bilingual generation, while class (a) concentrates during 787-848.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the IDP's catalogued Stein, Pelliot chinois, and Pelliot tibetain holdings, where format (pothi versus scroll) and script are catalogue-level fields on imaged items.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

Both borrowing channels are documented: Takata Tokio's work on Dunhuang multilingualism and on the Chinese texts written in Tibetan script (the 'Long Scroll') establishes the script-borrowing channel and the bilingual Tibeto-Chinese community, while pothi-format Chinese Buddhist manuscripts are a recognized codicological class. Not located: the item's specific DOUBLE DISSOCIATION -- >=80% of pothi-format Chinese-language items being Buddhist liturgical/scriptural AND the secular-or-pedagogic share of Tibetan-script Chinese exceeding that of the pothi class by >=30 points (the conjunction required), with the script class concentrated after 848 and the format class during 787-848 -- across IDP's Stein/Pelliot chinois/Pelliot tibetain holdings. The two channels are known; the disjoint-population double dissociation is unrun.

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.

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