The print threshold is a copy count

Claim (verbatim)

The print threshold is a copy count. Whether the empire printed or brushed a monumental compilation was decided by intended copies, never by size — blocks are a fixed cost recouped over impressions, so a work wanted in three copies is cheaper brushed however vast it is. The canons, demanded by every ordained monastery, were printed at five thousand juan; the Yongle dadian and the Siku quanshu, larger only in juan but smaller in intended copies, stayed manuscript. The notion that these were too big to print is a back-formation; the compilers' own memorials argue distribution, and the corpus should separate cleanly on that variable.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Enumerate all pre-1800 East Asian works over 1,000 juan with known production mode. Primary clause (verdict follows it): every printed member of the set has documented distribution to at least 20 institutional recipients, and every manuscript-only member has at most 7 intended copies (the Siku's seven pavilion sets being the ceiling), with at most one exception tolerated across the whole set. Secondary: the sponsoring memorials of the printed canons argue reprint-on-demand economics explicitly.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the Siku quanshu zongmu's own entries for the mega-compilations, the distribution registers of the printed canons in the dynastic huidian, and the Yongle dadian and Siku production records in the Ming and Qing shilu — all published, countable sources.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

[Independent blind re-audit 2026-07-08 (2nd pass, generator-independent, blind to pass 1). DOWNGRADED from the provisional 'novel_unlocated': this adversarial pass located adjacent prior work.] The underlying economics — woodblocks are a fixed cost recouped over impressions, so small intended print runs favor manuscript — is an established principle in Chinese book history (McDermott, 'A Social History of the Chinese Book'; Brokaw), and the printed Buddhist canons vs manuscript Yongle dadian/Siku quanshu are stock examples. Notably the STANDARD account states the Yongle dadian was manuscript because it was 'too big to print' — which this conjecture explicitly rebuts, arguing intended-copy-count, not size, was decisive. That contrarian framing plus the specific threshold prediction (every printed >1000-juan work distributed to >=20 institutional recipients; every manuscript-only one <=7 intended copies, Siku's seven pavilions as ceiling) is an operationalization I did not find already published. The general economics is prior (adjacent); the size-vs-copies separation test on the mega-compilation set is the novel part.

• Joseph P. McDermott, 'A Social History of the Chinese Book' (print vs manuscript economics; copy-count thresholds)
• Oxford History of the Book in China / standard 'too big to print' account of the Yongle dadian (the received wisdom the conjecture rebuts)

Predictions

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