The queue jumps for state protection

Claim (verbatim)

The queue jumps for state protection. The Nara court's complete-canon copying projects nominally worked through the imported catalogue order of the Kaiyuan lu, but the canon-as-list met the court's actual theology of crisis: state-protection sutras — Golden Light, Ninno, Lotus — were wanted now, for this drought and that epidemic, while doctrinal sastras could wait. The copy-order should therefore be catalogue order with demand-driven violations that all point one way, and since the Shosoin ledgers are dated and the catalogue positions known, the deviation is a computable vector, project by project.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

For a documented Nara complete-canon project (the Gogatsu tsuitachi canon is the natural case), regress dated copying starts of titles on their Kaiyuan lu catalogue positions. Primary clause (verdict follows it): the overall rank correlation is at least 0.6 (the list was real), while the 20 largest early-copying residuals contain a majority of state-protection and Prajna texts. Secondary: recopying counts across Nara projects are top-heavy on the same protection set at three or more times its juan share of the canon.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the Shosoin monjo copying ledgers in Dai Nihon Komonjo, with catalogue positions from the Kaiyuan shijiao lu (T 2154) in CBETA.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

The theology and the corpus are both documented: Nara state Buddhism prioritized the state-protection sutras (Golden Light, Ninno, Lotus) for drought and epidemic, and the large complete-canon copying projects -- the Gogatsu tsuitachi (5/1) canon of 740, commissioned by Empress Komyo -- are recorded in dated detail in the Shosoin documents. Not located: the item's specific COMPUTABLE-DEVIATION measurement -- regressing dated copying starts on Kaiyuan lu catalogue positions to get an overall rank correlation >=0.6 (the list was real) while the 20 largest early-copying residuals are a majority state-protection/Prajna texts, and recopying counts run >=3x their juan share for the protection set. The state-protection priority is established; the residual-vector deviation from catalogue order is an unrun operationalization.

• The Gogatsu tsuitachi (5/1) canon (740 CE, Empress Komyo) and Nara state-protection sutra copying (chingo kokka), documented in the Shosoin corpus; 'The May 1st Sutra: conservation of a Nara-period handscroll' — The state-protection copying priority and the dated 5/1 canon project -- the established direction
• Shosoin monjo copying ledgers in Dai Nihon Komonjo, with catalogue positions from the Kaiyuan shijiao lu (T 2154) in CBETA — The kill dataset for the catalogue-order-vs-copying-start regression

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.