AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Wear maps worship
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Wear maps worship. The Tripitaka Koreana's 80,000-plus blocks at Haeinsa include later recut replacements among the 13th-century originals, and blocks die two ways: randomly (wood defects, accidents — uniform across the canon) or by use (inking, printing, handling — concentrated where prints were demanded). If replacement blocks cluster tightly on the short devotional workhorses rather than spreading canon-wide, then the maintenance record is a centuries-long log of which scriptures Korean patrons actually paid to print — devotional demand data hiding in carpentry, orthogonal to the canon's official structure.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Using block-survey data distinguishing original from replacement blocks, compute the distribution of replacements across titles, normalizing by each title's block count. Primary clause (verdict follows it): the titles holding the top 5 percent of replacement rates account for at least 50 percent of all replacement blocks, and that set is dominated by short devotional sutras rather than the bulky Prajnaparamita and Abhidharma runs. Secondary: per-title replacement rate correlates positively with the count of separately attested Choson-era single-sutra editions of the same titles.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the published Haeinsa Tripitaka Koreana block surveys — the Cultural Heritage Administration's block-by-block census and the Tripitaka Koreana Knowledge Base with K-numbers per title.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.
Novelty / leakage triage
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).
The material facts are documented: the Tripitaka Koreana's 81,258 main blocks at Haeinsa include later recut replacements among the 13th-century originals, Haeinsa also holds ~5,987 miscellaneous scripture blocks (carved 1098-1958), and the monastery printed on demand 'whenever the need arose' -- so a maintenance/replacement record exists and blocks die both randomly and by use. Not located: the item's specific DEMAND-MAP measurement -- normalizing replacements by each title's block count to show the top-5%-replacement-rate titles holding >=50% of all replacement blocks and dominated by short devotional sutras (not the bulky Prajnaparamita/Abhidharma runs), with per-title replacement rate correlating with counts of separate Choson single-sutra editions. The replacement blocks and print-on-demand are documented; the demand-clustering-of-replacements measurement is unrun.
- UNESCO Memory of the World, 'Printing woodblocks of the Tripitaka Koreana and miscellaneous Buddhist scriptures' -- 81,258 main + ~5,987 miscellaneous blocks, printed on demand, with later replacements — Replacement/recut blocks and print-on-demand documented; the replacement-clustering-on-devotional-sutras map is the unrun measurement
- Published Haeinsa block-by-block census (Cultural Heritage Administration) and the Tripitaka Koreana Knowledge Base (K-numbers per title) — The kill dataset distinguishing original from replacement blocks per title
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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