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AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

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The rim text nests

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

The rim text nests. The Primary Standard Sequence on Maya vases is a fixed dedicatory formula fitted onto rims of very different circumferences; if the band was planned like piecework lettering against available length, abbreviation should be hierarchical rather than ad hoc, dropping the same expendable slots first the way notarial formulae abbreviate. Shortening a sacred formula is a social risk, and workshops manage such risk by convention — and convention leaves a nested signature.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Across at least 300 Kerr vases with a legible PSS, code presence or absence of the canonical formula slots (initial sign, dedication verb, surface term, vessel-type term, contents term, owner's name and titles). Primary clause (the verdict follows it): the presence-absence matrix forms a Guttman scale with coefficient of reproducibility at least 0.90 — shorter texts are overwhelmingly core-plus-prefix subsets of longer ones rather than arbitrary selections — versus a shuffled null well below that. Secondary clause: slot count correlates with rim circumference computed from recorded diameters at Spearman rho of at least 0.4.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the Kerr Maya Vase Database, whose rollouts and recorded vessel dimensions permit slot-by-slot PSS coding against circumference on the open corpus.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

The Primary Standard Sequence is a fixed dedicatory rim formula that (as Michael Coe established in coining the term in 1973, and MacLeod, Stuart and Reents-Budet elaborated) can be lengthened or shortened around an obligatory dedication-verb/vessel core with optional slots (owner, contents, surface term) -- the formulaic, expandable structure the item leans on is textbook. Not located: the item's operationalization -- that the slot presence/absence matrix forms a Guttman scale (coefficient of reproducibility >= 0.90), so short texts are near-strict core-plus-prefix subsets of longer ones rather than arbitrary selections, plus a slot-count/rim-circumference correlation -- coded slot-by-slot over >= 300 Kerr PSS. Established formula structure, unrun scalogram measurement.

Predictions

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