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Interlace slips map the work
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Interlace slips map the work. Insular interlace obeys strict under-over alternation, and its rare violations are treated as random lapses. The conjecture: the slips are structural — they concentrate where the drawing process broke off, at panel joins, pigment-field boundaries, and day-work seams — so error positions chart the production sequence the way casting flash marks a mould join. And because copyists reproduce crossings mechanically, a shared error at the topologically same crossing is a stemmatic character for ornament transmission.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): in the digitized carpet and incipit pages of the Lindisfarne Gospels and the Book of Kells, under-over violations occur within two strand-widths of a panel or pigment-field boundary at at least five times the per-crossing interior rate. Secondary clause: at least one pair of related pages or manuscripts shares a violation at the same topological crossing, beyond what independent error rates predict.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the British Library's digitized Lindisfarne Gospels (Cotton MS Nero D IV) and Trinity College Dublin's high-resolution digitized Book of Kells.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
no prior located yet (provisional)
A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it.
[Independent blind re-audit 2026-07-08 (2nd pass, generator-independent), confidence low. Double-confirmed: both the provisional pass and this re-audit located no prior formulation of the specific operationalized claim. NOTE: low-confidence negative — an exhaustive search of specialist print scholarship was not achievable, so 'no prior located' is weaker here.] Insular interlace grammar (strict under-over alternation) and its analysis are studied (Bruce-Mitford, Budny, Guilmain on interlace construction), and the production sequence / multiple-campaigns question is treated for the Book of Kells (MacGabhann, 'The Making of the Book of Kells: two Masters and two Campaigns'). But I located no work testing the specific claims that (a) under-over VIOLATIONS concentrate within two strand-widths of panel/pigment-field boundaries at >=5x the interior per-crossing rate, mapping day-work seams, and (b) a shared violation at the topologically same crossing is a stemmatic character for ornament transmission. Violations are usually treated as random lapses (or humility topoi); as a production-sequence and stemmatic instrument they appear untested. Confidence low for the same art-history search-exhaustiveness reason.
Predictions
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