Glass runs on book time

Claim (verbatim)

Glass runs on book time. Ornament in stained glass — border types, diaper grounds, grisaille foliage — is studied inside glass scholarship, but glaziers stocked their cartoon chests from painters' books. Ornament families should therefore appear in dated manuscripts before dated glass of the same region, with a consistent pipeline lag; figural iconography, governed by patrons and theologians rather than pattern stocks, should show no consistent lead in either direction. The asymmetry between ornament and figure is the tell.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Primary clause (the verdict follows it): for at least 12 ornament families in England and France, 1180-1350, manuscript attestation precedes regional glass attestation in at least 70 percent of families, with a median lag between 10 and 30 years. Secondary contrast clause: for a matched list of figural iconographic types, neither medium leads in more than 60 percent of cases.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the Corpus Vitrearum Medii Aevi (Great Britain) free online picture archive of dated windows, set against dated books in the British Library Catalogue of Illuminated Manuscripts.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

Cross-media pattern sharing between the decorated book and stained glass is a recognized part of Gothic workshop culture -- glaziers stocked cartoon chests including parchment 'small design motifs such as border repeats', and manuscript illumination is a standard comparandum for glass ornament (Corpus Vitrearum) -- so the book-to-glass direction the item's primary clause asserts is anticipated. Not located: the item's decidable lag test -- that for >= 12 ornament families in England/France 1180-1350 manuscript attestation precedes regional glass attestation in >= 70 percent of families (median lag 10-30 years) WHILE a matched list of figural iconographic types shows no consistent lead in either medium. Cross-media borrowing documented; the ornament-leads-with-figural-placebo lag measurement is unrun.

• Corpus Vitrearum (US) Stained Glass Glossary (cartoons and working patterns; parchment for small design motifs such as border repeats) — Glaziers' cartoons/patterns and their relation to painters' design stock.
• Corpus Vitrearum Medii Aevi (Great Britain) picture archive of dated windows against dated books in the BL Catalogue of Illuminated Manuscripts — The kill dataset for the ornament-lag test between books and glass.

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.