Seals stack like strata

Claim (verbatim)

Seals stack like strata. Collector seals accumulate on Chinese paintings for centuries, and their placement is discussed as taste. The conjecture: placement obeys an interstitial packing rule — each collector takes the best remaining slot in a stable preference order, corners of the image proper first, then mounting joins, then interior voids — so position alone predicts impression chronology, and stratigraphic violations flag remountings and forged seals. Connoisseurship gains a physical stratigraphy.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Primary clause (the verdict follows it): on at least 30 heavily sealed scrolls whose seals belong to dateable collectors, there exists a single corpus-level slot-preference ranking such that seal date rank correlates with slot rank at Spearman rho of at least 0.6 on at least 75 percent of scrolls. Secondary clause: seals independently suspected as later forgeries sit as stratigraphic violations — early-dated seals in late slots — at several times the background violation rate.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the National Palace Museum (Taipei) Open Data high-resolution images, whose catalogue records seal identifications and the collectors' dates.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

The item's ordering intuition is a recognized principle of Chinese painting connoisseurship: collector seals accumulate over centuries, earlier owners take prime positions while later collectors are pushed to margins/joins, and seal POSITION (with colour, carving style and known usage habits) is already used to date impressions and to detect later or forged seals. Not located: the item's formal stratigraphy -- a single corpus-level slot-preference ranking (image corners, then mounting joins, then interior voids) such that seal-date rank correlates with slot rank at Spearman rho >= 0.6 on >= 75 percent of >= 30 heavily sealed scrolls, with suspected forgeries appearing as early-dated seals in late slots at several times the background violation rate. Position-as-chronology documented; the corpus-level slot-ranking and stratigraphic-violation measurement is unrun.

• 'Vermillion Impressions -- Chinese Painting and Calligraphy Seals' (Hong Kong Museum of Art); on seal position, usage habits, and later/forged seals — Position and usage habits used to date impressions and flag later/forged seals; earlier owners in prime spots, later in margins.
• National Palace Museum (Taipei) Open Data high-resolution images with seal identifications and collectors' dates — The kill dataset for the slot-rank vs seal-date-rank stratigraphy and violation test.

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.