The string-hole outlives the string

Claim (verbatim)

The string-hole outlives the string. When western Indian manuscript production moved from palm leaf to paper, pages kept palm-leaf proportions and painted vestigial string-hole medallions — that much is known. The unestablished structure is the shedding schedule: vestiges should die in a fixed order, the functional trace first (the blank hole-circle), the decorative trace second (the hole reborn as a medallion), the format trace last (the extreme aspect ratio), each with a measurable half-life — because scribes abandon function, then ornament, then habit.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Primary clause (the verdict follows it): in dated western Indian paper manuscripts of 1350-1550, the shedding order blank-hole first, ornamental medallion second, palm-leaf aspect ratio (wider than 3:1) last holds in at least 80 percent of dated transitions within each regional series. Secondary clause: the frequency of the blank pseudo-hole halves roughly every 40 to 60 years across the dated corpus.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the British Library's digitized Jain manuscripts, JAINpedia, and the Victoria and Albert Museum's online Jain manuscript collection, all carrying dated colophons.

Novelty / leakage triage

provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending

A provisional first pass authored by the model (Opus), not yet confirmed by the shepherd. It carries the same dated-search requirements as an authoritative verdict but is excluded from every headline figure and cannot underwrite a prediction until a shepherd confirms it. Provisional reading: Adjacent (closely related prior work exists).

The item concedes the vestige itself is known -- western Indian paper manuscripts retained palm-leaf proportions and painted vestigial string-hole medallions after the binding string became unnecessary (documented in the palm-leaf-to-paper transition literature). Not located: the item's shedding-schedule -- that the vestiges die in a fixed order (the functional blank hole first, the ornamental medallion second, the palm-leaf aspect ratio last) in >= 80 percent of dated regional transitions 1350-1550, each with a measurable half-life (the blank pseudo-hole's frequency halving roughly every 40-60 years). Vestige retention documented; the ordered-shedding-with-half-life measurement is unrun.

• Wikipedia, 'Palm-leaf manuscript' (binding string-holes and format retained as vestiges when Indian manuscripts moved to paper) — The retained string-holes and palm-leaf format the item's shedding schedule builds on.
• British Library digitized Jain manuscripts, JAINpedia, and the Victoria and Albert Museum Jain manuscript collection (dated colophons) — The kill dataset for the shedding-order and half-life measurement across dated western Indian series.

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.