The grammar shelf flips in one lifetime

Status: Anticipated · untested

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Educational canons look immovable until they are replaced, and then the replacement is nearly total, because a curriculum is a coordination game — teachers teach what other teachers teach. Sanskrit grammar offers a clean natural experiment: the seventeenth-century reorganization of Pāṇinian teaching around the Siddhāntakaumudī as against the older Kāśikā-style ordering. If curricula flip the way coordination games do, manuscript copying of the two lineages should show not gradual substitution but a step: a few decades in which fresh copies of the old lineage collapse while the new lineage floods the record. If it holds, we gain a general instrument — dated copying series as curriculum seismographs — applicable to every śāstra with a known textbook succession.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

In the NGMPP/NGMCP catalogue, dated grammar manuscripts of the Kaumudī lineage will overtake Kāśikā-lineage copies within a crossover window of at most 60 years, and after the crossover the older lineage will fall below 20% of newly dated grammar copies and remain there. Primary clause: the crossover width of at most 60 years; the post-crossover share is secondary.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Dated grammar manuscripts in the NGMPP/NGMCP catalogue classified by textual lineage, with work identification supported by the Pandit database.

Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior. Kills and priors are credited here, by name, as they come in.

In the atlas

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Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated blind in a single Write with no reads, web access, or database queries; this is the second attempt for wave W14 after a prior instance died to a network error before writing its packet.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

The 17th-c. dominance of Bhaṭṭoji's Siddhāntakaumudī overshadowing the Kāśikā/older ordering is well documented, but modelling it as a coordination-game step-change measured in dated grammar-manuscript copying series (crossover <=60 yrs) is un-run.

'Siddhantakaumudi' (Wikipedia) — overshadowed Kāśikā and rival prakriyā works
Bronkhorst, 'Bhaṭṭoji Dīkṣita's Small Step…', J. Indian Philos. (2008)

Predictions

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