Resolution: Killed
Caveats: The first KILLED verdict on the lane's track record, and an honest drafting defect recorded with it: the pre-registered inconclusive-by-design floor ('any tradition's baseline mean below 5') also fires via the thin ethiopic CONTROL (2.75/decade), and clause priority was not pre-specified. The kill is nevertheless the only defensible reading: the kill clause concerns the two campaign-zone traditions themselves, both adequately sampled (6.5 and 6.25/decade baselines), and both move OPPOSITE to the prediction - dated production roughly doubles across 1390-1410. Substantively, the result exposes the instrument's flaw rather than settling Timur's impact: vHMML dated counts measure catalogued SURVIVAL within HMML's collection scope, and later manuscripts survive better and are more often colophon-dated; a genuine production trough could be masked or even inverted by these gradients (the armenian 1390s spike of 24 followed by 3 invites suspicion of dating-precision or collection artifacts). The conjecture's kill-dataset choice was honest and the data said no - that is the lane working as designed.
In-house test (triage: adjacent — the Armenian production-decline-under-Timur is qualitative historiography; the synchronized cross-tradition statistic is not): in vHMML catalogue metadata, dated Syriac and Armenian manuscript production shows a synchronized trough in 1390-1410 relative to each tradition's own 1340-1380 baseline, while Ethiopic (outside the campaign zone) does not.
Resolution criteria: Assign each dated record to a decade by date midpoint. For each tradition compute mean records/decade for 1340-1380 (baseline, 4 decades: 1340s-1370s) and for 1390-1400s (trough window, 2 decades). SUPPORTED if BOTH syriac and armenian trough means are >= 40% below their own baselines AND ethiopic's trough mean is NOT >= 40% below its baseline. KILLED if syriac or armenian shows no dip of at least 15%. INCONCLUSIVE otherwise, and INCONCLUSIVE BY DESIGN if any tradition's baseline mean is below 5 records/decade (sample too thin). Narrative: full decade series 1200-1500 per tradition, and recovery shape after 1410.
Known priors disclosure: Registrant has seen only window totals (date_start in 1150-1550: syriac 607, armenian 329, ethiopic 310) — thin enough that the inconclusive-by-design floor is live — and has NOT seen any decade distribution. Known priors: the qualitative Armenian-decline historiography (1350-1403) from the triage dossier; Wave 2's finding that 52.6% of dated vHMML records carry a generic 1700-1950 placeholder range (outside this window, but indicative of cataloguing-date quality); catalogue coverage is not production (survival + HMML's collection scope both intervene).
Exactly as pre-registered: per-decade means for baseline (1340-1380) vs trough window (1390s-1400s) per tradition, plus the narrative 1200-1500 decade series. Script preserved alongside the artifact.
Dataset: vHMML-derived dated records by tradition (midpoint-assigned decades): syriac baseline 1340s-1370s mean 6.5/decade, armenian 6.25, ethiopic 2.75. Read-only.
computed 2026-07-05