Resolution: Supported
Caveats: Calibration verdict on a descriptive gap whose INTERPRETATION stays open: the pre-registered claim (Ur III genre entropy at least 1 bit below OB) is robustly true in this catalogue - overall gap 2.29 bits, replicated in 8 of 10 collections holding 200+ of each period - but the conjecture's mechanism ('strong states make boring archives') is one reading among several. CDLI genre labels are modern cataloguing vocabulary; Ur III administrative dominance is partly a discovery/publication phenomenon (massive administrative archives excavated and prioritized); the harvest's sampling regime remains unverified-random (Wave 3a ID-ordered caveat; continuation regime not established); and the Schoyen counter-case (-0.21) demonstrates concretely that collection composition can invert the gap locally - what replicates across MOST collections is the catalogued record's shape, not necessarily ancient production. Registrant's prior (SumTablets ~93.6% Ur III admin share) pointed the right direction; the OB side and the replication structure were genuinely unseen at registration.
In-house test (triage: novel_unlocated; raw Ur III genre-share figures exist in a dataset description but no entropy computation or period comparison was located): in CDLI catalogue metadata, the Shannon entropy of genre composition for Ur III tablets sits materially below Old Babylonian entropy - peak bureaucratic centralization compressing the written record's genre diversity - replicated within collections to guard against the non-random-harvest caveat.
Resolution criteria: Population: tradition=cuneiform, period_canonical_name in {Ur III, Old Babylonian}; genre = raw genres_for_ws_e string, with empty/null excluded from the entropy and their share reported. H = Shannon entropy in bits of the genre-label distribution per period. CLAUSE PRECEDENCE, evaluated strictly in this order: (1) KILLED if H_OB minus H_UrIII <= 0.25 bits (including negative). (2) SUPPORTED if H_OB minus H_UrIII >= 1.0 bit AND at least 2 collections each holding >= 200 genre-labelled records of EACH period show a same-sign gap >= 0.5 bits. (3) Otherwise INCONCLUSIVE - explicitly including the case where fewer than 2 collections qualify, regardless of the overall gap. Narrative (non-binding): full genre distributions per period, per-collection gaps, unlabelled shares.
Known priors disclosure: Seen at registration: period counts (Ur III 59,692; Old Babylonian 14,975 - the local CDLI harvest has grown to 126,000 records via concurrent sanctioned scriptome work since Wave 3a's 60,000) and top collection names/counts. NOT seen: any genre distribution, any genre-by-period or genre-by-collection cross-tab. Known priors: the triage dossier's SumTablets figure (~93.6% administrative among Ur III transliterated tablets) implies LOW Ur III entropy is likely - which is why the kill/support hinges on the OB comparison and the within-collection replication, not on Ur III concentration alone. Standing caveats acknowledged: the harvest's randomness is unverified (Wave 3a's batch was ID-ordered; the continuation's sampling regime is not established here); CDLI genre labels are modern cataloguing vocabulary; Ur III administrative dominance is partly a discovery/publication phenomenon.
Exactly as pre-registered, clause precedence explicit: Shannon entropy (bits) of genre labels per period, kill clause first, then support (overall gap >= 1.0 AND >= 2 collections with >= 200 labelled records of each period showing same-sign gap >= 0.5), else inconclusive. Script preserved at docs/generated/conjecture_extracts/entropy_floor_20260705_script.py.
Dataset: CDLI catalogue metadata in-house (126,000 records at computation; concurrent scriptome harvest continuation since Wave 3a): Ur III 59455 genre-labelled (+237 unlabelled), Old Babylonian 13708 (+1267). Genre = CDLI's genres_for_ws_e label; collections from collections_raw. Read-only.
computed 2026-07-05