AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

Taylor's law of the nomes

Status: Open

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Taylor's law of the nomes. Fluctuation scaling from statistical physics meets the geography of documentary survival: across places, the variance of documentary output scales as a power of its mean with an exponent strictly between the Poisson value of 1 (independent accidents of survival) and the synchrony value of 2 (one shared shock), because production and survival shocks were regionally correlated but never global.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

For all attested places with >= 50 dated documents, regressing the log variance of 25-year-bin document counts on the log mean count yields a slope in [1.35, 1.85] with R^2 >= 0.8; a slope <= 1.1 (pure survival noise) or >= 1.95 (full synchrony) kills it.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: papyri.info dates and places (~77k records, in house).

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo/web/DB access); titles-only knowledge of existing items, embedded in titles_supplied per the batch-2 lane rule; prompt pre-committed in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_BATCH3_20260705.md (b043140). Novelty unverified by construction. titles_supplied stripped to the committed sidecar conjecture_fresh_fablemax_batch3_titles_supplied_20260705.md at import (schema additionalProperties:false; relaxation queued).

Novelty / leakage triage

no prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05)

Taylor's law has a rich transplant tradition (crime, epidemiology, finance, number theory — Cohen's survey) but no located application to archaeological/documentary survival data, and the specific interpretive claim (exponent between 1 and 2 as regionally-correlated shocks in a pre-modern record) appears unmade. No prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05). In-house computable.

Cohen, 'Taylor's Power Law: Before and After 50 Years of Scientific Scrutiny' (arXiv 1505.02033) — The transplant tradition; no documentary-survival case

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.

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