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AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

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The universality class of survival

Status: Falsified

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

The universality class of survival. Data collapse from critical phenomena meets manuscript transmission: Greek works at large and Byzantine book epigrams are different genres copied under different incentives, yet their witness-count distributions should collapse onto a single curve after rescaling by the mean, because textual survival has exactly one universality class.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Rescaling witness counts by each corpus's mean, the empirical survival functions of Pinakes' 21.5k works and DBBE's epigram type-groups agree to a Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance <= 0.06 over their shared support, and maximum-likelihood tail exponents agree within +/-0.15; failure to collapse (e.g., epigrams systematically fatter-tailed because they hitchhike on host books) kills it.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: Pinakes works-by-witnesses counts joined to DBBE type-group witness counts, both held in house.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo/web/DB access); titles-only knowledge of existing items, embedded in titles_supplied per the batch-2 lane rule; prompt pre-committed in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_BATCH3_20260705.md (b043140). Novelty unverified by construction. titles_supplied stripped to the committed sidecar conjecture_fresh_fablemax_batch3_titles_supplied_20260705.md at import (schema additionalProperties:false; relaxation queued).

Novelty / leakage triage

no prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05)

No statistical comparison of Pinakes and DBBE witness distributions was located; the corpora share a Diktyon identifier backbone (structural feasibility) and rigorous exponent-equality methodology exists (Corral & Deluca), but the join is unmade. No prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05). In-house computable; complements the cj-021 resolution directly.

Predictions

Killed registered 2026-07-05

Resolution: Killed

Caveats: An expected kill, registered with full disclosure: the registrant already knew both exponents from the cj-021 resolution and registered this to convert standing in-house evidence into a formal lane verdict rather than leave the conjecture open. Substantively: Greek literary works and Byzantine book epigrams do NOT share a witness-distribution universality class in these catalogues - the epigram tail is much steeper (fewer blockbuster texts) and the Pinakes distribution is not even cleanly power-law. Genre and catalogue-scope caveats from the cj-021 row carry over; survival convolves production with loss in both corpora.

In-house formal test with an UNUSUAL disclosure: the registrant already effectively knows the outcome. The conjecture predicts Pinakes works-by-witnesses and DBBE epigram type-groups share a universality class (rescaled distributions collapse; tail exponents statistically equal). The cj-021 resolution has ALREADY computed both MLE exponents on these exact datasets (Pinakes zeta alpha 1.559, where the lognormal in fact beat the pure power law; DBBE alpha 2.365) - so a formal exponent-equality test is expected to REJECT collapse. This registration exists to convert that knowledge into an honest, formal lane verdict rather than leaving the conjecture open when in-house evidence already bears on it.

Resolution criteria: Using the committed cj-021 extract artifacts (pinakes_copies_per_work.json, dbbe_fk.json), fit discrete power laws (zeta, xmin=1) by MLE to both f_k distributions and compute the two-sided z-test for exponent equality using asymptotic MLE standard errors (se ~ (alpha-1)/sqrt(n)). CLAUSE PRECEDENCE: (1) KILLED if |alpha_pinakes - alpha_dbbe| exceeds 3 pooled standard errors, OR if either dataset's power law is beaten by the lognormal by more than 10 AIC (a collapse claim presupposes the power-law form). (2) SUPPORTED if exponents agree within 2 pooled SEs AND the power law is the best model in both. (3) Otherwise INCONCLUSIVE.

Known priors disclosure: FULL DISCLOSURE: the registrant computed both fits in the cj-021 resolution (2026-07-04) - alpha 1.559 vs 2.365, and lognormal beating zeta by ~2,009 AIC in Pinakes - and therefore expects clause (1) to fire twice over. This is a formalization of existing in-house evidence, not a blind test; the verdict's value is honest bookkeeping (the conjecture should not remain 'open' when the lane's own prior computation effectively falsifies it).

As pre-registered: zeta MLE on both f_k distributions, asymptotic-SE exponent-equality z-test, clause precedence explicit. Script at docs/generated/conjecture_extracts/b3_resolutions_20260705_script.py.

Dataset: The committed cj-021 extract artifacts (Pinakes 21,513 works; DBBE 4,898 type-groups), refit read-only.

computed 2026-07-05

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