AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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The beta of the scriptoria
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The beta of the scriptoria. The single-factor market model from asset pricing meets Eastern Christian book production: doctrinally separated traditions (Syriac, Armenian, Coptic, Ethiopic, Georgian and others) nonetheless load on one common macro-shock factor, so their production time series co-move like stocks in a single market despite centuries of institutional isolation.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Building per-50-year production z-scores per tradition from dated vHMML manuscripts over 800-1500 CE, the first principal component explains >= 45% of the cross-tradition variance and every tradition with >= 100 dated manuscripts loads positively at >= 0.3; a first component under 30%, or any robustly negative loading, kills it.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: vHMML manuscript dates and traditions (in house).
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo/web/DB access); titles-only knowledge of existing items, embedded in titles_supplied per the batch-2 lane rule; prompt pre-committed in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_BATCH3_20260705.md (b043140). Novelty unverified by construction. titles_supplied stripped to the committed sidecar conjecture_fresh_fablemax_batch3_titles_supplied_20260705.md at import (schema additionalProperties:false; relaxation queued).
Novelty / leakage triage
no prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05)
Nothing joins factor-model/PCA co-movement analysis to cross-tradition manuscript production; the holdings exist (HMML multi-tradition collections) and the finance framework is standard, but no application was located. No prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05).
- HMML Eastern Christian collections overview — The enabling multi-tradition dataset
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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