AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

Desynchronized stelae

Status: Prior

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Desynchronized stelae. Early-warning signals of critical transitions meet Maya epigraphy: the katun-ending dedication network was a field of coupled oscillators, and like any complex system nearing a tipping point it desynchronized first — rising variance and autocorrelation in dedication timing precede each region's last dates.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

In monument dedication dates, the cross-site variance of offsets from period endings rises >= 50% and the lag-1 autocorrelation of inter-dedication intervals rises by >= 0.2 during the final 60 years before each epigraphic region's terminal long-count date, relative to that region's Late Classic baseline, in at least three of four regions; collapse arriving with no prior desynchronization kills it.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the Maya Hieroglyphic Database dedication-date tables.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo/web/DB access); titles-only knowledge of existing items, embedded in titles_supplied per the batch-2 lane rule; prompt pre-committed in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_BATCH3_20260705.md (b043140). Novelty unverified by construction. titles_supplied stripped to the committed sidecar conjecture_fresh_fablemax_batch3_titles_supplied_20260705.md at import (schema additionalProperties:false; relaxation queued).

Novelty / leakage triage

Adjacent (closely related prior work exists)

Both halves are mature: early-warning-signal theory (Scheffer et al.) and a decades-long statistical literature on Maya terminal long-count dates (including spatial-autocorrelation methodological debates and sub-regional abandonment timing). The join — temporal EWS statistics on dedication-interval series per region — was not located; the existing autocorrelation work is spatial, not temporal.

Scheffer et al., 'Early-Warning Signals for Critical Transitions', Nature 461 — The EWS framework
'Terminal Long Count Dates and the Disintegration of Classic Period Maya Polities' — Quantitative work on the same dataset, spatial framing

Predictions

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