Capture-recapture in the anthologies

Status: Prior

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Capture-recapture in the anthologies. Capture-recapture census statistics meet Sanskrit anthology studies: the great subhashita collections are quasi-independent samples from a floating ocean of stanzas, so their pairwise overlaps yield a census of that ocean — and it dwarfs everything that survives.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Lincoln-Petersen and Chao estimators applied to pairwise verse overlaps among the Subhashitaratnakosha, Saduktikarnamrita, and Sharngadharapaddhati imply a floating corpus of 40,000-90,000 stanzas, with the three pairwise estimates mutually consistent within a factor of 1.5; overlaps so large that estimates fall below 15,000 (anthologists copying anthologists rather than sampling the ocean) kill it.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: a digitized overlap matrix from Sternbach's concordance of subhashita collections.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo/web/DB access); titles-only knowledge of existing items, embedded in titles_supplied per the batch-2 lane rule; prompt pre-committed in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_BATCH3_20260705.md (b043140). Novelty unverified by construction. titles_supplied stripped to the committed sidecar conjecture_fresh_fablemax_batch3_titles_supplied_20260705.md at import (schema additionalProperties:false; relaxation queued).

Novelty / leakage triage

Adjacent (closely related prior work exists)

Capture-recapture on overlapping cultural catalogues is genuinely precedented (multiple-systems estimation of Modigliani's true painting population; bibliographic completeness applications), and the anthologies are standard Indology (Ingalls); the Sanskrit stanza-census via pairwise anthology overlaps was not located.

Multiple-systems estimation of Modigliani paintings (The American Statistician) — The method on cultural catalogues

Predictions

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