Resolution: Supported
Caveats: ROBUSTLY SUPPORTED, and the only one of the four OpenITI Tier-1 conjectures whose verdict survives independent re-derivation unchanged. Al-Tabari's signature verdict formula (awla ... bi-l-sawab) is one-to-two orders of magnitude denser in the Qur'an commentary than in the History: both the compute (R=43.7) and an independent from-scratch re-derivation (R=inf, or 70x under a generous variant) clear the staked 10x threshold by a wide margin, so the verdict is insensitive to the tokenization/punctuation choices that the criteria under-specify. A ~9% Ta'rikh continuation-volume ('Arib b. Sa'd) is bundled in this edition and not stripped, but is immaterial at this margin. The interiority claim -- Tabari adjudicates where he believed adjudication licensed (Tafsir) and abstains where he did not (Ta'rikh) -- is supported.
Registered against the OpenITI corpus (github.com/OpenITI), primary text versions of al-Tabari's Jami' al-bayan (the Tafsir) and Ta'rikh al-rusul wa-l-muluk (the Ta'rikh). Claim under test (the conjecture's own primary clause): al-Tabari's signature verdict formula -- awla (اولى) within a 40-character window of bi-l-sawab (بالصواب) -- occurs AT LEAST TEN TIMES more often per 100,000 words in the Tafsir than in the Ta'rikh.
Resolution criteria: SHARED CONVENTIONS (identical across all rows of this packet). (a) TEXT SELECTION: use the PRIMARY OpenITI version of each named work (the '-ara1' primary per OpenITI convention, or the single most-complete version if no primary is flagged); if a work is split across several OpenITI version files, concatenate all parts of that same work's primary version in order. The build must FREEZE the exact OpenITI version URI(s) + a sha256 per work in a freeze_manifest before any metric is computed. (b) CLEANING: strip OpenITI mARkdown structural material (header block; lines/markers beginning with '#', '~~', page markers like 'PageVNN_NNN', 'ms', milestone markers 'Milestone###', editorial '@'-tags) to leave the running body text; strip Arabic tashkil (U+064B-U+0652, U+0670, U+0640 tatweel). (c) WORD = one whitespace-delimited token of the cleaned body text. (d) MARKER MATCHING is done on the tashkil-stripped text; alif/hamza variants are normalized for marker matching only (alif-forms أ إ آ ا -> ا) NOT for word counting. (e) All raw counts, rates, and the cleaned word totals per work must be reported alongside the verdict. (f) computed_at must postdate registered_at. || POPULATION: work T = Jami' al-bayan (Tabari's Tafsir); work H = Ta'rikh al-rusul wa-l-muluk. MARKER: one occurrence = a token normalizing to 'اولى' (alif-waw-lam-ya after alif-normalization + tashkil strip) whose nearest edge lies within 40 characters (of the cleaned, tashkil-stripped text) of a token normalizing to 'بالصواب', in EITHER order. RATE(work) = markers per 100,000 words. PRIMARY STATISTIC R = RATE(T) / RATE(H) (if RATE(H)=0 and RATE(T)>0, R=+inf). CLAUSE PRECEDENCE, in order: (1) INCONCLUSIVE_BY_DESIGN if either work is absent from OpenITI, OR either work's cleaned body < 20,000 words (too short to be the work -- a fetch/identification failure), OR the total marker count across T+H < 8 (too sparse to compare rates). (2) SUPPORTED if R >= 10. (3) KILLED if R < 10 (the tenfold fails -- includes RATE(H) >= RATE(T)). (4) else INCONCLUSIVE. Report RATE(T), RATE(H), both marker counts, both word totals.
Known priors disclosure: Held at registration: the conjecture's own reasoning (Tabari adjudicates in the Tafsir, abstains in the Ta'rikh, as a theory of genre) and general knowledge that both works are present in OpenITI as long machine-readable texts. NOT computed before registration: the actual awla/bi-l-sawab co-occurrence counts or per-word rates in either work -- only that the marker strings are well-formed Arabic that a regex can match. The staked tenfold threshold is the conjecture's own.
Frozen OpenITI primary texts (sha256 in freeze_manifest.json; each work's identity independently re-confirmed from its own #META# header). Sonnet computed; a SEPARATE independent Sonnet verifier then re-derived every load-bearing number FROM SCRATCH with its own cleaning + tokenization (not permitted to read the compute's scripts/results), and stress-tested operationalization robustness. Verdict authored by Fable reconciling both. computed_at postdates registered_at (rule 6). Rate = markers/100k words; R = rate(Tafsir)/rate(Ta'rikh).
Dataset: OpenITI Jami' al-bayan (al-Tabari's Tafsir) and Ta'rikh al-rusul wa-l-muluk, frozen. Marker = awla (اولى) within 40 characters of bi-l-sawab (بالصواب).
computed 2026-07-16