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Off-by-default lens · own legend, not the census palette
Ancient world: propagation bands
What the excavated-corpus estimator implies about how much cuneiform Mesopotamia and Greco-Roman Egypt actually produced — not what survives, what was made. Every number below is a band, never a bare point.
How to read this lens
This lens is off by default because it measures a different, much wider kind of uncertainty than the rest of the map. Every other cell you have seen is grounded in a census: a catalogued, counted object. These bands are not that -- they are what a four-stage chain (deposition, preservation, excavation, publication) implies about how much was PRODUCED, given how little of the ancient world's writing could ever have reached a modern catalogue at all. The bands are honestly enormous (often two orders of magnitude, p05 to p95), and that width is not a flaw to be hidden: it is the actual state of knowledge about the excavated ancient world, decomposed stage by stage so you can see exactly which gap in the evidence is driving it. Every number on this page is a band, never a bare point; the width bar is mandatory precisely so it cannot be mistaken for a census-grade count.
The estimator arc (Wave 3b design + Wave 4a scored bet + Wave 4b consolidation/out-of-sample) is fully independently VERIFIED (docs/generated/scriptome_v1_wave4b_verification.md), meeting the operator's gate for this lens to go live (docs/generated/scriptome_promotion_grammar_brief.md, OPERATOR DECISION).
Cuneiform (Mesopotamia, Elam, the Levant)
Source: ScriptomeMethodRun #159
(excavated-corpus-v1-cuneiform-wave5-20260705110934), 2026-07-05.
Zero server-side recomputation: read directly from this run's own materialized cells.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / all — of order 10^8; plausibly 30.4M to 3.0B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 30440704
- p25
- 113728619
- p50
- 301050116
- p75
- 805290564
- p95
- 3002760531
Width: 1.99 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.305 |
|
| excavation | 0.453 |
|
| preservation | 0.211 |
|
| publication | 0.025 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 45.3% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 30.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 21.1% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / hm-3500 — of order 10^6; plausibly 236.7K to 48.6M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 236744
- p25
- 1145892
- p50
- 3505545
- p75
- 10851866
- p95
- 48583663
Width: 2.31 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.221 |
|
| excavation | 0.329 |
|
| preservation | 0.154 |
|
| publication | 0.018 |
|
| census_noise | 0.003 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.001 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.274 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 32.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
- observation: period share sampling is 27.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 22.1% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / hm-3000 — of order 10^6; plausibly 317.2K to 37.3M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 317240
- p25
- 1256791
- p50
- 3509435
- p75
- 9696048
- p95
- 37300114
Width: 2.07 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.279 |
|
| excavation | 0.416 |
|
| preservation | 0.194 |
|
| publication | 0.023 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.083 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 41.6% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 27.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / hm-2500 — of order 10^7; plausibly 9.9M to 980.8M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 9867045
- p25
- 36661921
- p50
- 99154294
- p75
- 262275888
- p95
- 980777489
Width: 2.00 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.303 |
|
| excavation | 0.451 |
|
| preservation | 0.210 |
|
| publication | 0.024 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.005 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 45.1% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 30.3% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 21.0% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / hm-2000 — of order 10^7; plausibly 6.8M to 676.5M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 6769828
- p25
- 25155322
- p50
- 67975773
- p75
- 179957399
- p95
- 676541350
Width: 2.00 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.303 |
|
| excavation | 0.451 |
|
| preservation | 0.210 |
|
| publication | 0.024 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.006 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 45.1% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 30.3% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 21.0% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / hm-1500 — of order 10^7; plausibly 2.1M to 213.7M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 2109698
- p25
- 8000320
- p50
- 21026476
- p75
- 57041658
- p95
- 213722751
Width: 2.01 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.295 |
|
| excavation | 0.439 |
|
| preservation | 0.204 |
|
| publication | 0.024 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.033 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 43.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 29.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 20.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / hm-1000 — of order 10^7; plausibly 4.4M to 463.4M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 4382745
- p25
- 16714414
- p50
- 45479591
- p75
- 121266759
- p95
- 463449350
Width: 2.02 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.302 |
|
| excavation | 0.449 |
|
| preservation | 0.209 |
|
| publication | 0.024 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.011 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 44.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 30.2% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 20.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / c-05 — of order 10^6; plausibly 357.1K to 39.6M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 357092
- p25
- 1383241
- p50
- 3807609
- p75
- 10241899
- p95
- 39575656
Width: 2.04 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.285 |
|
| excavation | 0.425 |
|
| preservation | 0.198 |
|
| publication | 0.023 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.064 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 42.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 28.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 19.8% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / c-04 — of order 10^6; plausibly 298.7K to 31.1M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 298675
- p25
- 1149537
- p50
- 3104875
- p75
- 8197285
- p95
- 31079239
Width: 2.02 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.290 |
|
| excavation | 0.432 |
|
| preservation | 0.201 |
|
| publication | 0.023 |
|
| census_noise | 0.004 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.048 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 43.2% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 29.0% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 20.1% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / c-03 — of order 10^5; plausibly 76.0K to 10.8M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 76004
- p25
- 315863
- p50
- 892513
- p75
- 2605041
- p95
- 10840448
Width: 2.15 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.259 |
|
| excavation | 0.385 |
|
| preservation | 0.179 |
|
| publication | 0.021 |
|
| census_noise | 0.003 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.152 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 38.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 25.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 17.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / c-02 — of order 10^5; plausibly 76.2K to 11.0M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 76241
- p25
- 316697
- p50
- 917679
- p75
- 2613285
- p95
- 10954836
Width: 2.16 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.259 |
|
| excavation | 0.385 |
|
| preservation | 0.179 |
|
| publication | 0.021 |
|
| census_noise | 0.003 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.152 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 38.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 25.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 17.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
aggregate_mesopotamia_elam_levant / c-01 — of order 10^5; plausibly 29.0K to 3.9M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 29046
- p25
- 119020
- p50
- 342479
- p75
- 971453
- p95
- 3921079
Width: 2.13 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 421501.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.259 |
|
| excavation | 0.385 |
|
| preservation | 0.179 |
|
| publication | 0.021 |
|
| census_noise | 0.003 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.002 |
|
| observation:period_share_sampling | 0.152 |
|
What would change this number
-
excavation is 38.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Registered vs estimated archaeological sites, Iraq [literature_guess]Ur: fraction excavated [literature_guess]
-
deposition is 25.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Kultepe/Kanesh karum II merchant archives [documented]
- preservation is 17.9% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Greco-Roman papyri (Egypt)
Source: ScriptomeMethodRun #160
(excavated-corpus-v1-papyri-wave5-20260705110934), 2026-07-05.
Zero server-side recomputation: read directly from this run's own materialized cells.
egypt / all — of order 10^9; plausibly 101.5M to 43.1B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 101511114
- p25
- 594385727
- p50
- 2090999730
- p75
- 7262899443
- p95
- 43061993782
Width: 2.63 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 64587.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c-05 — of order 10^5; plausibly 18.9K to 7.1M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 18886
- p25
- 102961
- p50
- 357923
- p75
- 1237959
- p95
- 7051707
Width: 2.57 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 11.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c-04 — of order 10^6; plausibly 144.8K to 60.1M
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 144823
- p25
- 853891
- p50
- 2964313
- p75
- 10416667
- p95
- 60149065
Width: 2.62 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 93.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c-03 — of order 10^8; plausibly 6.0M to 2.5B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 6015745
- p25
- 34893749
- p50
- 118897758
- p75
- 429854673
- p95
- 2548443572
Width: 2.63 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 3830.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c-02 — of order 10^8; plausibly 5.5M to 2.3B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 5493585
- p25
- 31880196
- p50
- 111926123
- p75
- 388064598
- p95
- 2256907329
Width: 2.61 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 3408.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c-01 — of order 10^7; plausibly 3.2M to 1.3B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 3185878
- p25
- 17715680
- p50
- 62177372
- p75
- 219842132
- p95
- 1287079654
Width: 2.61 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 1921.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c01 — of order 10^8; plausibly 9.8M to 3.7B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 9841691
- p25
- 54034291
- p50
- 196704469
- p75
- 679532752
- p95
- 3713222183
Width: 2.58 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 6019.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c02 — of order 10^8; plausibly 25.9M to 10.6B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 25867421
- p25
- 150466070
- p50
- 529214606
- p75
- 1872803683
- p95
- 10564584929
Width: 2.61 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 16313.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c03 — of order 10^8; plausibly 15.2M to 6.1B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 15201198
- p25
- 86800010
- p50
- 300734133
- p75
- 1052505827
- p95
- 6121616553
Width: 2.60 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 9403.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c04 — of order 10^8; plausibly 9.9M to 4.0B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 9929912
- p25
- 56249631
- p50
- 197645973
- p75
- 698728560
- p95
- 4031310589
Width: 2.61 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 6192.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c05 — of order 10^7; plausibly 4.4M to 1.7B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 4418378
- p25
- 25308942
- p50
- 87105137
- p75
- 297355236
- p95
- 1705822492
Width: 2.59 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 2630.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c06 — of order 10^8; plausibly 7.7M to 3.1B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 7711206
- p25
- 43041462
- p50
- 153293362
- p75
- 554838157
- p95
- 3137165415
Width: 2.61 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 4814.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c07 — of order 10^8; plausibly 9.4M to 3.7B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 9430670
- p25
- 54544819
- p50
- 190093841
- p75
- 671124048
- p95
- 3741870029
Width: 2.60 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 5842.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
egypt / c08 — of order 10^8; plausibly 5.6M to 2.2B
Log-scale p05–p95 width bar (10³ .. 10¹³)
10³10&sup5;10&sup7;10&sup9;10¹¹10¹³
- p05
- 5568997
- p25
- 31451812
- p50
- 108588653
- p75
- 386403929
- p95
- 2165539883
Width: 2.59 dex (orders of magnitude, p05-p95). N_obs (census input to this cell): 3311.
Per-stage variance decomposition
| deposition | 0.194 |
|
| excavation | 0.185 |
|
| preservation_environment | 0.065 |
|
| preservation_material | 0.156 |
|
| publication | 0.131 |
|
| census_noise | 0.000 |
|
| observation:census_completeness | 0.000 |
|
| observation:site_heterogeneity | 0.267 |
|
What would change this number
- observation: site heterogeneity is 26.7% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
-
deposition is 19.4% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]
-
excavation is 18.5% of this cell's total variance -- narrowing its evidence (see the anchors below) buys down this band's width the most.
Oxyrhynchus: material recovered 1896-1907 [documented_with_spread]Sebakh digging destroyed papyrus-bearing mounds before recovery [existence_proof]
Explicit abstentions (18)
- afghanistan / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- arabian_peninsula / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- austria / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- british_isles / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- france / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- georgia / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- greece / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- iberia / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- iran / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- italy / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- levant / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- maghreb / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- middle_east / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- north_africa / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- sudan / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- switzerland / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- turkey / all: Chain inversion runs only where the burial->find chain is anchorable (Egypt's desert gate). Every other mapped region (levant, italy, etc.) is an existence-proof lane: real finds, real writing, but no defensible f_env/s_material prior -- abstention, not silent inclusion.
- unmapped / all: Abstained: origin unmapped abstained not guessed (the underlying run recorded this reason key without further prose).
Model honesty
The three scored bets
This is the reason to trust these bands' honesty, not their precision: every prediction below was written down and frozen BEFORE the evidence that scores it was measured. Wins and losses are shown with identical weight — a lens that only reported its wins would not have earned any trust at all.
CDLI full-catalogue period-mix prediction
5/9 bands HIT; directional claims PASS
Registered Wave 3b, scored Wave 4a
The anti-artifact bet is vindicated: the ID-ordered Wave-3a batch measured Ur III at 83.9%; this wave's seeded random sample measures Ur III at 26.232% (95% CI 18.6-33.9%), inside the registered 20-28% band and far below the 40% ceiling. 5 of 9 period-mix bands hit; both directional claims passed. Scored exactly per the pre-registered, pre-evidence protocol -- no band or bucket-mapping rule was adjusted after seeing this outcome.
Scored mechanically as written against a seeded random sample -- a real, pre-registered result -- but not epistemically blind: the site-selection queries this project ran to design later bets (Karanis) show this project does look at live data while designing its own tests. Sound-not-blind is the honest description, not "blind," and not "invalid" either.
Oxyrhynchus → Tebtunis out-of-sample check
LOSE
Wave 4b
LOSE: the actual Tebtunis census count sits far above the band predicted by transporting Oxyrhynchus's own census-yield-per-recovered-piece rate. This is model-class information, not a reporting problem (goal's own framing): it directly tests whether the excavation x publication PRODUCT is safely treated as tradition-constant (the v1 estimator's working assumption) or varies materially by site. The measured answer here is that it varies -- Tebtunis's own yield rate is measured several-fold higher than Oxyrhynchus's.
Karanis third-site prediction
LOSE
Wave 5
A second LOSE, even after widening the band with the Wave-4b Oxyrhynchus->Tebtunis df=1 heterogeneity estimate: actual Karanis census 2,281 sits 3.7x above even the widened p95 ceiling (611), and ~21x the p50. Read plainly as model-class information (per the goal's own framing, exactly as Wave 4b's original LOSE was read): the SINGLE two-site heterogeneity estimate this project owns (Oxyrhynchus vs. Tebtunis, +/-0.71 dex) is NOT wide enough to bracket a third site's true deviation -- either genuine site-to-site dispersion in the excavation x publication yield rate is substantially LARGER than one pair can measure, or Karanis's own anchor (already flagged as the weakest in the table, banded from a collection-wide ceiling rather than a site-specific figure) is itself too low, or both. Both are real, named, undecided candidate explanations -- not adjudicated here, per the same discipline Wave 4b applied to its own LOSE. This does NOT widen site_heterogeneity's own prior after the fact (no re-editing, per the scoring rule above); it is named as a recommended Wave-6+ reconsideration instead (see the wave report's Phase 2 section).