the Mithila school's teaching monopoly in early Navya-Nyaya was a copying monopoly too, and it left a permanent physical signature. Works of the monopoly period should circulate almost exclusively in eastern scripts, while pre-monopoly Nyaya classics show pan-Indian script spread — institutional…
Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary
One Thousand and One Conjectures
One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.
1,053 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 843 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 0 provisional · 15 resolved (6 supported / 4 killed)
Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.
The conjectures are a public preview of a much larger inference project, coming shortly.
Why these conjectures matter — the account, written by the model under examination → · The noetome, measured: gradient, quadrant map & the corpus judging itself → · The Most-Wanted 52 →
Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84%
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Clear all filtersWhat the tags mean
- Open — no decisive result yet
- Already answered — the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
- Anticipated · untested — the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
- No prior located — a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Showing 1–38 of 38 matching conjectures.
Byzantine book epigrams stratify by the industrial structure of the copying that carried them. Liturgical and biblical books were produced by professional scribes reproducing a whole book-object, paratexts included, so their epigrams are mass-replicated formulae; philosophical manuscripts were copied by and for…
Everyone assumes old chant is stable and new chant is loose, because errors accumulate with copying. The reverse should hold across medieval Europe: chants for late, centrally promulgated feasts like Corpus Christi (1264) should be nearly identical everywhere, while the ancient Advent…
Every psalm sung in the office ends with a small cadential formula, the differentia, chosen from a local menu; tonaries were written to police that choice. The conjecture is that the menu shrinks on a steady clock: each recopying of an antiphoner…
The Glossa Ordinaria wrapped the Bible in marginal commentary; the postill was a separate, self-standing commentary that flourished from the thirteenth century. The conjecture: the postill genre was born of page geometry, book by book — where the standard Gloss had already…
Some Greek texts were copied because churches were required to have them (liturgy prescribed by the typikon), others because readers admired them (homilies, theology, classics). These are different economies: prescribed books face a demand set by the number of altars — every…
Byzantine scribes framed their books with verse epigrams, most in the strict twelve-syllable line whose prosody every schooled scribe once commanded. The conjecture: when the same epigram type is recopied across centuries, its metrical faults accumulate at a measurable rate, because later…
In Eastern Christian monastic libraries, two genres lived different physical lives: service books were handled daily, worn out, and replaced by fresh local copies, while patristic theology sat on the shelf, consulted but not consumed. The conjecture is that this splits every…
The nomina sacra — the contracted sacred names like a barred theta-sigma for 'God' — are the most distinctive habit of Christian book hands; ordinary papyrus letters and contracts are the humblest layer of ancient writing. The conjecture is that in everyday…
A book of hours contains several components that each betray a local liturgical 'use' — the calendar's feasts, the litany's saints, the office variants. In a bespoke book made where it would be prayed, these parts agree. The conjecture is that internal…
After confession became obligatory in 1215, Europe needed reference books for confessors, and two designs competed: systematic summae organized by theological order, and alphabetical ones organized like dictionaries. The conjecture is that alphabet beat system in the survival record by a wide,…
A thirteenth-century sermon opened with a thema, a scriptural verse chosen from the day's readings, from which the whole discourse was unfolded. In principle a preacher could pick any verse of the pericope; the conjecture is that the market for model sermons…
The earliest medieval annals are laconic year-entries, and many survive physically attached to Easter tables — the computistical grids monks kept for finding the date of the feast. The conjecture makes the attachment causal and testable: annal-keeping began as marginal annotation of…
Gratian's Decretum, the twelfth century's great canon-law textbook, was augmented after its making with inserted passages called paleae; the next century's decretal collections (the Liber Extra) codified the new case law flowing through the papal courts. The conjecture is that the paleae…
Until 1215 the Church banned marriage within seven degrees of kinship; the Fourth Lateran Council cut the ban to four. Old canonical and penitential texts kept being copied after the change. The conjecture is that scribes silently repaired the law in transit:…
The Franciscan Rule was locked into a papal bull in 1223; the Dominican constitutions were deliberately kept amendable by annual general chapters. The conjecture is that these two legal fixation modes produced two opposite textual physiologies, measurable in the manuscripts: the bulled…
Guides written for anchoresses — most famously the Ancrene Wisse, first addressed to three sisters — kept being revised for new readers. The conjecture is a directional law of such revision: addressee scope only ever widens (three sisters, then a larger community,…
Inquisition registers record vernacular testimony in notarial Latin, but the Latin skin tears in predictable places, letting Occitan words through. The conjecture is twofold: the tear-points cluster in domains where Latin genuinely lacked equivalents — kinship terms, foodstuffs, and the heretics' own…
The portable breviary compressed the monastic office into a book a friar could carry, and something had to be cut. The conjecture is that compression was systematically confessional in its priorities: hagiographic lessons (saints' lives read at matins) were slashed first and…
Byzantine book epigrams occur at both ends of a codex: dedication verses up front, scribes' colophon verses at the back. The conjecture is that position governs fidelity: occurrences of a formulaic epigram type at the end of a book should deviate from…
When Rome suppressed Spain's old Hispanic (Mozarabic) rite in the 1080s, its books kept being copied in a few Toledo parishes for centuries — but nobody was learning the chant as a living performance tradition anymore. The conjecture is that suppression changed…
The Paris stationers' taxatio of 1275 and 1304 fixed the rental price of exemplar peciae, so market demand could not show in price; it could only show in how many exemplars of a work the trade stocked. The surprising connection is between…
Aquinas, like every schoolman, first met most authorities second-hand, through Peter Lombard, Gratian, and florilegia. The surprising claim joins the commercial pecia system to the intimate question of what a master actually read: an authority converts from mediated to direct citation over…
This conjecture claims the mediated share of citations is not a rising function of an authority's age but an inverse-U: the very oldest authorities (Scripture, Aristotle, Augustine) were owned and read whole as curriculum texts, near-contemporaries circulated as fresh complete works, but…
Textual critics reconstruct manuscript families from shared errors; this conjecture applies the same logic to citation, claiming that scholastic misattributions are not noise but the fingerprint of the retrieval channel. A quotation inherits the false ascription its carrying florilegium or glossed book…
When a scholastic author cites several passages from one source work inside a single question, direct reading tends to harvest them in the source's own order, because a reader's eye moves forward through a codex, while florilegial retrieval yields the anthology's re-sorted…
This conjecture claims scholastic diligence was tactically allocated: when writing against an opponent, a master re-verified the opponent's proof-texts in full copies, because a misquoted enemy loses the debate, while continuing to take his own side's supporting authorities on anthology trust within…
This conjecture claims citation precision is a by-product of the citer's own lecturing: the works of Aristotle that Aquinas formally commented get cited elsewhere in his corpus with numbered book-and-chapter addresses, while uncommented works get the vague appeal to the Philosopher. The…
Student reportationes, taken on wax tablets and rough quaterni, preserve what a scholastic classroom actually sounded like, and this conjecture claims the famous citation apparatus of scholastic books was largely added afterward at the desk: in the written ordinatio, anonymous appeals become…
Two storage systems fed scholastic quotation: verbatim memory, installed by years of chanting the Psalter in choir, and the consulted book or anthology, whose text was copied and freely re-worded. This conjecture joins a plain fact about error processes to citation fidelity:…
The standard picture has copying demand driving citation: popular books get quoted. This conjecture reverses the arrow for the university period, joining modern bibliometrics' lead-lag analysis to medieval manuscript counts: a work newly promoted in a dominant master's citations generated rental and…
University loan chests took books in pawn, and the surviving cautio registers record what students and masters could stand to lose for a term; this conjecture joins pawnbroking economics to library history, claiming the pledge record is a photographic negative of the…
Medieval book curses, the anathemas scribbled on flyleaves against thieves, are usually read as generic piety; this conjecture reads them as targeted insurance and joins them to the second-hand book market. A curse is worth writing where theft is likely, and theft…
This conjecture claims subject classification in medieval library catalogues is a scale-triggered technology rather than an intellectual fashion: below a threshold collection size the librarian's memory is the catalogue, and lists are kept by donor or accession, but above the threshold memory…
The university taxatio was administratively additive: titles entered the stationers' price list when demand appeared, but were rarely struck off when demand died, so successive lists accreted a fossil layer of dead stock. This conjecture joins regulatory economics to the two surviving…
Pecia production copied a book from independently rented quire-units, while ijaza and sama' transmission audited a text in continuous certified read-back sessions; this conjecture claims the two quality-control regimes leave physically different error landscapes on the page. Because exemplar peciae circulated and…
This conjecture claims a medieval library's duplicate ratio is an institutional signature legible without reading a single statute: houses that taught bought throughput, multiple copies of the same core texts for simultaneous users, while contemplative houses bought coverage, one copy of many…
Late medieval catalogues identify a manuscript by the opening words of its second folio, a practice usually filed under anti-theft prudence; this conjecture claims it is a collision-driven invention in the strict identifier-engineering sense. Title alone distinguishes books until a house holds…