in the scholastic classroom the objection-side authorities functioned as a memorized bank of classic difficulties — an objection had to be recognizable to master and audience to carry disputational force, so the same hard sayings of Augustine, Aristotle, and Jerome were recycled…
Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary
One Thousand and One Conjectures
One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.
1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 0 provisional · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)
Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.
The conjectures are a public preview of a much larger inference project, coming shortly.
Why these conjectures matter — the account, written by the model under examination → · The noetome, measured: gradient, quadrant map & the corpus judging itself → · The Most-Wanted 52 →
Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84%
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What the tags mean
- Open — no decisive result yet
- Already answered — the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
- Anticipated · untested — the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
- No prior located — a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Showing 1–41 of 41 matching conjectures.
A scholastic article has a fixed anatomy: objections against the thesis, a short 'sed contra' authority for it, and the master's resolution. The conjecture is that this structure sorts authorities by age like a centrifuge: the sed contra, which must be unimpeachable,…
post-classical madrasa scholasticism transmitted knowledge as a linked list, not a star. Each hashiya took the previous layer, not the root text, as its classroom object, because teaching consumed the newest sharh as the effective text while the matn survived only as…
writing a line-by-line commentary on an authority permanently converts a scholastic's citation channel to that authority from mediated to direct across his whole subsequent output. The commentary forces desk-level engagement with a complete exemplar; afterwards the master quotes from his own annotated…
in kalam and falsafa, measurable text-reuse binds an author more tightly to the opponents he refutes than to his own school's masters, because refutation obligates verbatim quotation — the opponent must be pinned to his exact wording before demolition — while agreement…
in the Guide of the Perplexed, naming is a safety and positioning policy, not a bibliography. Maimonides names authorities who are canonical and safely dead (Aristotle, al-Farabi) while his heaviest structural and textual dependence — the Avicennian analysis of necessary and possible…
the Paris condemnation of 1277 did not suppress the condemned theses, it anonymized them. Discussing a censured position under its author's name risked complicity, but the disputational machine could not run without its hardest objections, so masters kept the content and severed…
the Catena aurea project (begun 1263) was a supply shock to Aquinas's citation economy. Compiling it built him a personal bank of newly translated Greek patristic excerpts, so afterwards his Greek-father citation volume should jump discontinuously across all genres of his writing…
the Sentences-commentary genre drifted from pastoral coverage to speculative concentration on a measurable schedule. Disputational prestige, not curricular duty, set the incentives, and prestige lived in Book I's frontier problems — divine knowledge, future contingents, intension of forms — so between 1250…
after about 1300 the working Aristotle of the arts faculties was a florilegium of exam-ready tags, not the translations. Oral disputation and examination rewarded fixed memorizable slogans, and once the popular auctoritates handbooks compiled them, the tag-list became the effective text —…
The Glossa Ordinaria wrapped the Bible in marginal commentary; the postill was a separate, self-standing commentary that flourished from the thirteenth century. The conjecture: the postill genre was born of page geometry, book by book — where the standard Gloss had already…
University quodlibets were open-microphone disputations held twice a year, in Advent and in Lent, where anyone could ask the master anything. The two sessions sat in different economic seasons: Advent fell at the close of the autumn term amid year-end accounting and…
Aquinas's Summa runs from God (Prima Pars) through human action and morals (Secunda) to Christ and sacraments (Tertia); Gratian's Decretum and the decretals were the Church's law books. The conjecture is that canon law enters the Summa almost entirely through one door:…
When thirteenth-century churchmen wrote against the Cathars, they faced a dualist enemy Augustine had already fought under another name nine centuries earlier. The conjecture is that heresiology ran on template reuse to a measurable extreme: anti-Cathar treatises should cite Augustine's specifically anti-Manichaean…
Nicholas of Lyra, the fourteenth century's most influential Bible commentator, famously cited 'the Hebrews' — above all Rashi. Rashi's own commentary mixes plain-sense explanation (peshat) with homiletic midrash roughly half and half. The conjecture is that Lyra operated a tight one-way filter:…
The Paris stationers' taxatio of 1275 and 1304 fixed the rental price of exemplar peciae, so market demand could not show in price; it could only show in how many exemplars of a work the trade stocked. The surprising connection is between…
Aquinas, like every schoolman, first met most authorities second-hand, through Peter Lombard, Gratian, and florilegia. The surprising claim joins the commercial pecia system to the intimate question of what a master actually read: an authority converts from mediated to direct citation over…
The verbal concordance built by the Dominicans of Saint-Jacques in the 1230s-1250s turned the Bible from a remembered flow into an alphabetically addressable database, and this conjecture claims the tool left a statistical residue in the texts written with it. Verses fetched…
A quodlibetal disputation was live theatre, with questions taken from the floor twice a year, while the Summa was composed at a desk surrounded by books; this conjecture joins the psychology of retrieval under time pressure to citation statistics. Live genres should…
The quaestio format requires manufactured disagreement: before a master can resolve anything he must first find authorities that seem to say the wrong thing, and apparent contradiction is rare and must be hunted in obscure texts, while agreement is abundant in the…
This conjecture joins the heresiology of the 1270s condemnations to plain citation counting: the density of authorities in a scholastic article tracks institutional risk, not intellectual difficulty. On topics where a determination might attract censure, such as the eternity of the world…
If citations tallied evidence, their count per article would be noisy and over-dispersed, swinging with how much support each conclusion happens to have; if the quaestio is a fixed-size packet, the counts should be clamped like lines in a sonnet. This conjecture…
This conjecture joins the liturgy-like fixity of the quaestio to network statistics: authorities held stable positional roles, some habitually opening the difficulty in the objections, others sealing the determination, and an authority's seat, not just its frequency, encoded its epistemic rank. Masters…
In an economy where authority accrued with age, an author dead a hundred years sat at maximum disadvantage: too dead to answer as a colleague, too recent to count as an auctor. This conjecture therefore predicts a bimodal age distribution of cited…
This conjecture claims the mediated share of citations is not a rising function of an authority's age but an inverse-U: the very oldest authorities (Scripture, Aristotle, Augustine) were owned and read whole as curriculum texts, near-contemporaries circulated as fresh complete works, but…
Textual critics reconstruct manuscript families from shared errors; this conjecture applies the same logic to citation, claiming that scholastic misattributions are not noise but the fingerprint of the retrieval channel. A quotation inherits the false ascription its carrying florilegium or glossed book…
When a scholastic author cites several passages from one source work inside a single question, direct reading tends to harvest them in the source's own order, because a reader's eye moves forward through a codex, while florilegial retrieval yields the anthology's re-sorted…
A good objection was hard capital: finding an authority who appears to contradict the received position took rare hunting, while supporting quotations lay everywhere, so the dialectical armory was small, curated, and long-lived. This conjecture claims the asymmetry is measurable as differential…
This conjecture claims scholastic diligence was tactically allocated: when writing against an opponent, a master re-verified the opponent's proof-texts in full copies, because a misquoted enemy loses the debate, while continuing to take his own side's supporting authorities on anthology trust within…
Everyone knows Aquinas synthesized Aristotle and Augustine; this conjecture claims the synthesis happened between articles, not within them. At the article level the two supreme authorities should behave like ions of like charge, repelling: an article argued in Aristotle's idiom rarely also…
Averroes entered Latin argument as an attachment, summoned to unlock a resistant Aristotle passage, while Avicenna, absorbed earlier and as a system-builder in his own right, circulated free-standing; this conjecture claims the difference is a measurable topological property of citation, not a…
This conjecture claims citation precision is a by-product of the citer's own lecturing: the works of Aristotle that Aquinas formally commented get cited elsewhere in his corpus with numbered book-and-chapter addresses, while uncommented works get the vague appeal to the Philosopher. The…
This conjecture joins the twelfth-century schools to the thirteenth-century university through a bottleneck claim: Lombard's Sentences, Gratian's Decretum, and the Glossa ordinaria acted as the citation economy's admission gate, so a patristic authority not excerpted by them stayed effectively invisible to direct…
Student reportationes, taken on wax tablets and rough quaterni, preserve what a scholastic classroom actually sounded like, and this conjecture claims the famous citation apparatus of scholastic books was largely added afterward at the desk: in the written ordinatio, anonymous appeals become…
Two storage systems fed scholastic quotation: verbatim memory, installed by years of chanting the Psalter in choir, and the consulted book or anthology, whose text was copied and freely re-worded. This conjecture joins a plain fact about error processes to citation fidelity:…
Pagan moralists and pagan poets were equally available in the schools, and the poets were more heavily taught in the grammar classroom, yet this conjecture claims the arts-theology boundary worked as a genre firewall with a moral pass: prose moralists like Seneca…
The standard picture has copying demand driving citation: popular books get quoted. This conjecture reverses the arrow for the university period, joining modern bibliometrics' lead-lag analysis to medieval manuscript counts: a work newly promoted in a dominant master's citations generated rental and…
This conjecture claims scholastic self-reference is directional in a way that maps intended curriculum rather than composition history: the occasional works, disputed questions and opuscula, point the reader elsewhere toward the systematic works, while the systematic works rarely point back down, so…
Both Latin scholasticism and the Islamic madrasa built commentary stacks on base texts, but their conservation engineering differed: the madrasa's matn was memorized, present in every student's head at every layer, while the Latin Sentences was a rentable written exemplar that a…
Latin scholastic authority traveled chained to manuscript copies, but the Jewish responsa system gave halakhic authority a second transport layer: opinions moved in letters answering distant queries, then were cited from those letters onward. This conjecture joins postal-network epidemiology to authority diffusion,…
Pecia production copied a book from independently rented quire-units, while ijaza and sama' transmission audited a text in continuous certified read-back sessions; this conjecture claims the two quality-control regimes leave physically different error landscapes on the page. Because exemplar peciae circulated and…