Inferpedia - an encyclopedia of the missing

Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary

One Thousand and One Conjectures

One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 0 provisional · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

The conjectures are a public preview of a much larger inference project, coming shortly.

Why these conjectures matter — the account, written by the model under examination → · The noetome, measured: gradient, quadrant map & the corpus judging itself → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84%

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–30 of 30 matching conjectures.

Sexagesimal digits were written in Arabic abjad letter-numerals, in Hindu-Arabic ciphers, and in various Latin conventions, and each system has its own characteristic confusions — which letter melts into which when a diacritic drops, which cipher flips into which under a tired…

The Almagest, the central book of ancient astronomy, rarely travels alone in its manuscripts. The surprising connection is that each translation version travels with its own characteristic convoy of satellite texts — introductions, canons, star-lists — stable enough that a codex's translation…

The standard picture has Hindu-Arabic numerals entering Latin Europe through algorism treatises — books that explain the new arithmetic. The surprising connection is that the zero sign appears earlier and more consistently in Latin astronomical TABLES than in Latin arithmetical texts: the…

Mappae mundi look like pictures copied from pictures, and their genealogies are usually drawn accordingly. The surprising connection is that their place-name errors are textual, not graphic: omissions cluster in runs of names that are adjacent in written geographies but scattered on…

Copyists of world maps worked outward from the ideologically loaded centre, and their attention decayed with radius. The surprising connection is that copying fidelity on mappae mundi is therefore a radial function: error and omission density rises with distance from the map's…

Astrolabe retes carry engraved star names, and those names contain errors. The surprising connection is that the errors match the copyist errors of specific manuscript star-list recensions: engravers worked from written lists at the bench, not from other instruments or from the…

The documentary horoscopes preserved on Greek papyri were computed from astronomical tables, and we can now recompute which ones. The surprising connection is that provincial practitioners used systematically OBSOLETE tables — one to two parameter-generations behind the best contemporary theory — with…

In Greco-Egyptian astronomical papyri, prose and numbers did not switch languages together. The surprising connection is that the tabular matter is the conservative organ: layouts, notational habits, and month-name treatments of the Egyptian (Demotic) tradition persist in tables for generations after the…

Our canon of ancient medicine is defined by the great treatises the medieval codex tradition chose to preserve. The surprising connection is that the ground-level papyrus record is dominated by a different textual form entirely: catechistic question-and-answer texts, definition lists, and short…

Provençal and Iberian Hebrew astronomical tables and neighbouring Latin tables drew on the same Andalusi Arabic heritage. The surprising connection is that the Hebrew line functioned as a parameter refrigerator: it preserved Andalusi parameter vintages in working circulation for a century or…

The Toledan Tables were the most copied astronomical dataset of the Latin twelfth and thirteenth centuries, and their witnesses contain identifiable corrupt entries. The surprising connection is that these corruptions form geographic clades: bundles of shared errors mark descent from common exemplars,…

Translation between the scientific languages was not one flow but a ladder of genre-specific speeds. The surprising connection is the ordering: calendrical and computus material crossed a language frontier within roughly a generation, practical table canons within about two, and theoretical astronomy…

A mappa mundi has two inheritable layers: the drawn and written content, and the construction geometry laid down before any ink — compass-hole centres, ruled circles, division angles. The surprising connection is that these layers travel separately: physical workshop templates passed between…

Some scientific content circulated in both prose and mnemonic verse — versified computus, versified algorism, versified regimen. The surprising connection is that the verse versions systematically out-diffused their prose sources into regions of thin book culture, so the verse-to-prose witness ratio of…

The twelfth-century Sicilian translations of Greek astronomy directly from the Greek were textually superior to their Arabic-Latin rivals, yet barely circulated — the fact is known, the shape of their survival is not. The surprising connection is that where the Greek-Latin versions…

Distances cut into itinerary stones and painted into map legends ought to be independent measurements of the world. The surprising connection is that they share scribal corruptions with the written itinerary tradition: numeral errors born on papyrus and parchment were carved into…

Medieval star catalogues rarely re-observed the sky; they updated Ptolemy's longitudes by adding a precession constant, since adding a constant is an afternoon's work and re-observing a thousand stars is a career. The surprising connection is that the added increments form a…

The uroscopy wheel — the circular diagram of graded flask colors that is medieval medicine's most recognizable image — normally appears embedded in a treatise, and editors assume image and text descended together. The surprising connection is that the wheel travels on…

The university pecia system rented out exemplar quires for piecework copying and is credited with standardizing the scholastic book. The surprising connection is that it moved prose but choked on tables: astronomical codices produced under pecia show split ancestry, their prose affiliating…