The Dresden Codex Venus corrections walk the optimal Stern–Brocot path toward the true synodic period — best-rational-approximation arithmetic. Falsify: the codex's own correction scheme.
Generated by Fable · below the evidence/publication boundary
One Thousand and One Conjectures
308 of 1001 posed · 158 shepherd-triaged · 150 provisional · 0 frontier · 20 predictions · 9 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed) — the 1001st will be posed at Ars Inquirendi, Oxford, 20 November 2026.
Cross-domain conjectures generated noetically by Fable — a frontier AI proposing, from its own knowledge, surprising connections between two well-known domains that it judged likely to be both novel and important. Each pairs a specific claim with a quantitative prediction and a dataset that could prove it wrong; each was then checked against the literature to flag the ones with known priors.
This is one form of lead generation for Inferpedia, the encyclopedia of the missing — and this page is an early preview.
Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →
Nothing here is claimed as verified-novel. Each sits below the evidence/publication boundary: a connection already known in the literature is shown honestly and tagged Prior, and every prediction is registered before it is scored. Spotted a prior yourself? Open any conjecture and weigh in.
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Texts, scribes & transmission 95
Money & economy 31
Art & iconography 30
Literature & poetics 30
Philosophy, theology & the schools 30
Engineering, materials & building 21
Networks & trade 19
Institutions, law & bureaucracy 12
Time, sky & calendars 9
Water, land & settlement 8
Chance & decision 7
Logistics & operations 7
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Mesopotamia 15
Egypt 20
Levant & Near East 24
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Rome & Italy 24
Mediterranean 12
Europe 80
Islamic world 45
Steppe & Central Asia 4
South Asia 19
East Asia 55
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Sub-Saharan Africa 9
Americas 14
Oceania & the Pacific 6
Global / method 4
What the tags mean
- Open — no decisive result yet
- Prior — a prior formulation exists in the literature
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Triage state
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).
Showing 1–9 of 9 matching conjectures.
Post-1200 church orientation errors should trace the geomagnetic declination curve — dating compass adoption in the building trades and refining archaeomagnetism at once. Falsify: orientation databases vs paleo-declination.
Chart accuracy per route scales as 1/√(voyage traffic) — maps as averaged compass logs. Falsify: cartometric route error vs traffic proxies.
Roman colonial grid azimuths match sunrise on foundation-festival dates, so grids encode founding dates we've lost. Falsify: azimuths vs the colonies whose dates we know.
Cairo grain prices follow Nilometer minima with a fixed ~9-month lag and asymmetric response — droughts move prices more than good floods. Falsify: joined series.
Before the 19-year cycle fossilized, Mesopotamian ad-hoc leap months cluster after poor harvests — the calendar as economic stimulus. Falsify: dated intercalations vs flood and price proxies.
Portable Roman dials cut for the wrong latitude reveal central workshops exporting blind; misfit errors should cluster by workshop signature. Falsify: latitudinal misfit clustering in the dial corpus.
Tooth-module standards should form a measurable transmission chain from Antikythera-era Greek gearing through the Byzantine sundial-calendar to Islamic geared astrolabes. Falsify: comparative tooth metrology.
Joins experience-curve economics (power-law quality improvement with cumulative output) to Islamic mathematical geography: mosque orientation error is a measurable output-quality series spanning eight centuries, and it should fall as a power law in cumulative regional mosque construction as zij tables and qibla…